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        21.7,
        21.7,
        21.7,
        21.7,
        7.5,
        7.6
      ]
    },
    {
      "series_key": "BAA10Y",
      "key": "BAA10Y",
      "name": "Baa corporate spread",
      "group": "credit",
      "group_name": "Credit",
      "latest_date": "2026-10-01",
      "latest": 1.49,
      "value": 1.49,
      "d1": 0.0,
      "d5": 0.03,
      "change": 0.03,
      "score": 5.8,
      "weight": 0.075,
      "nominal_weight": 0.075,
      "contribution": 0.43,
      "units": "pct",
      "direction": "up",
      "transform": "level",
      "explanation": "Moody's Baa corporate yield minus the 10-year Treasury.",
      "history": [
        1.63,
        1.62,
        1.61,
        1.6,
        1.54,
        1.59,
        1.58,
        1.58,
        1.57,
        1.56,
        1.56,
        1.57,
        1.55,
        1.51,
        1.5,
        1.47,
        1.48,
        1.43,
        1.44,
        1.4,
        1.42,
        1.42,
        1.39,
        1.39,
        1.46,
        1.46,
        1.46,
        1.47,
        1.49,
        1.49
      ],
      "history_dates": [
        "2026-08-25",
        "2026-08-26",
        "2026-08-27",
        "2026-08-28",
        "2026-08-31",
        "2026-09-01",
        "2026-09-02",
        "2026-09-03",
        "2026-09-04",
        "2026-09-07",
        "2026-09-08",
        "2026-09-09",
        "2026-09-10",
        "2026-09-11",
        "2026-09-14",
        "2026-09-15",
        "2026-09-16",
        "2026-09-17",
        "2026-09-18",
        "2026-09-21",
        "2026-09-22",
        "2026-09-23",
        "2026-09-24",
        "2026-09-25",
        "2026-09-28",
        "2026-09-29",
        "2026-09-30",
        "2026-10-01",
        "2026-10-02",
        "2026-10-04"
      ],
      "score_history": [
        13.7,
        13.0,
        12.3,
        11.7,
        7.7,
        11.2,
        10.5,
        10.5,
        9.9,
        9.2,
        9.2,
        10.0,
        8.5,
        6.0,
        5.6,
        4.3,
        4.8,
        1.5,
        2.1,
        0.5,
        1.1,
        1.1,
        0.3,
        0.3,
        3.8,
        3.9,
        3.9,
        4.7,
        5.8,
        5.8
      ]
    }
  ],
  "weights": {
    "SPX_DD": 0.17,
    "HY_OAS": 0.075,
    "VIX": 0.1125,
    "MOVE": 0.0625,
    "HY_OAS_1M": 0.05,
    "REAL_YIELD_1M": 0.05,
    "DXY_1M": 0.032,
    "NFCI": 0.075,
    "VIX_TERM": 0.075,
    "WTI_1M": 0.024,
    "BAA10Y_1M": 0.05,
    "CURVE_10Y3M": 0.05,
    "BTC_DD30": 0.024,
    "STLFSI4": 0.075,
    "BAA10Y": 0.075
  },
  "groups": {
    "volatility": {
      "name": "Volatility",
      "weight": 0.25,
      "score": 49.1
    },
    "credit": {
      "name": "Credit",
      "weight": 0.25,
      "score": 49.2
    },
    "funding": {
      "name": "Financial conditions",
      "weight": 0.15,
      "score": 21.4
    },
    "equity": {
      "name": "Equity",
      "weight": 0.17,
      "score": 40.9
    },
    "rates": {
      "name": "Rates",
      "weight": 0.1,
      "score": 60.9
    },
    "cross_asset": {
      "name": "Cross-asset",
      "weight": 0.08,
      "score": 69.4
    }
  },
  "bands": [
    {
      "lo": 0,
      "hi": 35,
      "name": "Safe",
      "color": "#16a34a"
    },
    {
      "lo": 35,
      "hi": 50,
      "name": "Cautious",
      "color": "#84cc16"
    },
    {
      "lo": 50,
      "hi": 65,
      "name": "Risky",
      "color": "#f59e0b"
    },
    {
      "lo": 65,
      "hi": 78,
      "name": "Nearly Crash",
      "color": "#f97316"
    },
    {
      "lo": 78,
      "hi": 100.0001,
      "name": "Game Over",
      "color": "#dc2626"
    }
  ],
  "drivers": [
    "S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high (stress percentile 41)",
    "High-yield credit spread (stress percentile 74)",
    "VIX volatility index (stress percentile 44)"
  ],
  "blurb": "The Overall Gauge reads 49.6 (Cautious); financial stress is 46.4 (Cautious) and the geopolitical layer is 67.7 (Severe). Main financial contributors: S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high (stress percentile 41); High-yield credit spread (stress percentile 74); VIX volatility index (stress percentile 44). Geopolitical drivers: Houthi Strikes on Saudi Energy Infrastructure (75.0); US-Iran Escalation and Regional Military Clashes (61.2).",
  "narrative_long": "The Overall Gauge stands at 49.6 out of 100, maintaining its position in the Cautious band against a neutral market regime. Core financial stress registered at 46.4 out of 100, also remaining within the Cautious band. In contrast, the geopolitical layer scored 67.7 out of 100 to reside in the Severe band, propelled primarily by Houthi Strikes on Saudi Energy Infrastructure, US-Iran Escalation and Regional Military Clashes. \n\nThe largest contributors to the financial stress composite were the S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high at a 41 stress percentile, the high-yield credit spread at a 74 stress percentile, and the VIX volatility index at a 44 stress percentile. Across all individual metrics, the most extreme input was the high-yield spread, 1-month change, which surged to a stress percentile of 97. Additional acute velocity pressures appeared in the 10-year real yield 1-month change at a 96.3 stress percentile and the US dollar index 1-month change at a 90.8 stress percentile. These pressures were partially mitigated by more tranquil baseline conditions elsewhere, such as the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index at a 7.6 stress percentile and the Baa corporate spread at a 5.8 stress percentile.",
  "explanation_source": "llm_client",
  "regime": {
    "primary": "neutral",
    "confidence": null,
    "scores": {
      "volatility": 0.49,
      "credit": 0.49,
      "funding": 0.21,
      "equity": 0.41,
      "rates": 0.61,
      "cross_asset": 0.69
    },
    "method": "descriptive_v2"
  },
  "outputs": {
    "dashboard_html": "dashboard.html",
    "yields_json": "yields.json",
    "accord_json": "accord.json",
    "accord_html": "accord.html",
    "geo_json": "geo_live.json",
    "history_json": "history_v2.json"
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "composite_analysis": {
      "financial_score_method": "pit_percentile_groups_v2",
      "base_score": 46.37,
      "trend_penalty": 0.0,
      "regime_adjustment": 0.0,
      "financial_adjust": 0.01,
      "total_score": 49.57,
      "geo_weight": 0.15,
      "groups": {
        "volatility": {
          "name": "Volatility",
          "weight": 0.25,
          "score": 49.1
        },
        "credit": {
          "name": "Credit",
          "weight": 0.25,
          "score": 49.2
        },
        "funding": {
          "name": "Financial conditions",
          "weight": 0.15,
          "score": 21.4
        },
        "equity": {
          "name": "Equity",
          "weight": 0.17,
          "score": 40.9
        },
        "rates": {
          "name": "Rates",
          "weight": 0.1,
          "score": 60.9
        },
        "cross_asset": {
          "name": "Cross-asset",
          "weight": 0.08,
          "score": 69.4
        }
      }
    },
    "regime_analysis": {
      "primary": "neutral",
      "confidence": null,
      "scores": {
        "volatility": 0.49,
        "credit": 0.49,
        "funding": 0.21,
        "equity": 0.41,
        "rates": 0.61,
        "cross_asset": 0.69
      },
      "method": "descriptive_v2"
    },
    "indicators": {
      "SPX_DD": {
        "name": "S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high",
        "group": "equity",
        "latest": -0.9779,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-02",
        "score": 40.9,
        "weight": 0.17,
        "units": "dd",
        "direction": "down",
        "transform": "% below 52-week high",
        "source": "yahoo:^GSPC"
      },
      "HY_OAS": {
        "name": "High-yield credit spread",
        "group": "credit",
        "latest": 3.24,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-01",
        "score": 74.5,
        "weight": 0.075,
        "units": "pct",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "level",
        "source": "fred:BAMLH0A0HYM2"
      },
      "VIX": {
        "name": "VIX volatility index",
        "group": "volatility",
        "latest": 16.39,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-01",
        "score": 44.0,
        "weight": 0.1125,
        "units": "idx",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "level",
        "source": "fred:VIXCLS"
      },
      "MOVE": {
        "name": "MOVE Treasury volatility",
        "group": "volatility",
        "latest": 107.29,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-02",
        "score": 77.9,
        "weight": 0.0625,
        "units": "idx",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "level",
        "source": "yahoo:^MOVE"
      },
      "HY_OAS_1M": {
        "name": "High-yield spread, 1-month change",
        "group": "credit",
        "latest": 0.58,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-01",
        "score": 97.0,
        "weight": 0.05,
        "units": "pp",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "21-business-day change",
        "source": "fred:BAMLH0A0HYM2"
      },
      "REAL_YIELD_1M": {
        "name": "10y real yield, 1-month change",
        "group": "rates",
        "latest": 0.44,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-01",
        "score": 96.3,
        "weight": 0.05,
        "units": "pp",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "21-business-day change",
        "source": "fred:DFII10"
      },
      "DXY_1M": {
        "name": "US dollar index, 1-month change",
        "group": "cross_asset",
        "latest": 2.3805,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-02",
        "score": 90.8,
        "weight": 0.032,
        "units": "chg_pct",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "21-business-day % change",
        "source": "yahoo:DX-Y.NYB"
      },
      "NFCI": {
        "name": "Chicago Fed financial conditions (NFCI)",
        "group": "funding",
        "latest": -0.548,
        "latest_date": "2026-09-25",
        "score": 35.3,
        "weight": 0.075,
        "units": "idx",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "level (weekly)",
        "source": "fred:NFCI"
      },
      "VIX_TERM": {
        "name": "VIX / VIX3M term structure",
        "group": "volatility",
        "latest": 0.8501,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-02",
        "score": 32.6,
        "weight": 0.075,
        "units": "ratio",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "ratio of 1-month to 3-month implied vol",
        "source": "yahoo:^VIX+yahoo:^VIX3M"
      },
      "WTI_1M": {
        "name": "WTI crude, 1-month move",
        "group": "cross_asset",
        "latest": 12.8434,
        "latest_date": "2026-09-29",
        "score": 82.0,
        "weight": 0.024,
        "units": "chg_pct",
        "direction": "abs",
        "transform": "21-business-day log % change (stress uses its size)",
        "source": "fred:DCOILWTICO"
      },
      "BAA10Y_1M": {
        "name": "Baa spread, 1-month change",
        "group": "credit",
        "latest": -0.09,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-01",
        "score": 28.3,
        "weight": 0.05,
        "units": "pp",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "21-business-day change",
        "source": "fred:BAA10Y"
      },
      "CURVE_10Y3M": {
        "name": "10y-3m Treasury curve",
        "group": "rates",
        "latest": 1.09,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-02",
        "score": 25.5,
        "weight": 0.05,
        "units": "pct",
        "direction": "down",
        "transform": "10-year minus 3-month yield",
        "source": "fred:T10Y3M"
      },
      "BTC_DD30": {
        "name": "Bitcoin 30-day drawdown",
        "group": "cross_asset",
        "latest": -2.4314,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-02",
        "score": 28.2,
        "weight": 0.024,
        "units": "dd",
        "direction": "down",
        "transform": "% below 30-day high",
        "source": "yahoo:BTC-USD"
      },
      "STLFSI4": {
        "name": "St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index",
        "group": "funding",
        "latest": -0.8074,
        "latest_date": "2026-09-25",
        "score": 7.6,
        "weight": 0.075,
        "units": "idx",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "level (weekly)",
        "source": "fred:STLFSI4"
      },
      "BAA10Y": {
        "name": "Baa corporate spread",
        "group": "credit",
        "latest": 1.49,
        "latest_date": "2026-10-01",
        "score": 5.8,
        "weight": 0.075,
        "units": "pct",
        "direction": "up",
        "transform": "level",
        "source": "fred:BAA10Y"
      }
    }
  }
}