How the Game Over Gauge works
The Game Over Gauge is a free, transparent indicator of how fragile financial markets are right now. It is published once a day and built from public data. This page covers exactly how it's calculated, what the risk bands mean and what it can't tell you.
Methodology
- Collect. Each morning (~09:05 UTC) the pipeline pulls the latest daily values of 10 market indicators, mostly from the Federal Reserve's FRED database, plus 30 days of history for each.
- Normalise. Each indicator is mapped to a 0–100 stress score between a calm level and a crisis level. For example, the VIX scores 0 at 9.0 and 100 at 41.0.
- Weight. Scores are combined with fixed weights into a weighted average (table below).
- Trend penalty. Indicators deteriorating quickly over five days add a penalty, because fast-moving stress is more dangerous than stable stress.
- Regime adjustment. A regime model (risk-on, risk-off, inflation, growth, crisis) scales the result slightly up or down.
- Blend. The financial stress score is blended with the geopolitical risk index: 75% financial, 25% geopolitical.
| Indicator | Weight | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| High Yield Credit Spread | 14% | The extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds. Spreads widen fast when credit markets fear defaults. |
| US 10Y Real Yield | 12% | The 10-year TIPS yield: borrowing cost after inflation. High real yields squeeze growth stocks and leveraged borrowers. |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | 12% | The 10-year Treasury yield sets the price of money for mortgages, corporate debt and equity valuations. |
| Bitcoin/USD | 10% | A high-beta liquidity barometer: large swings often reflect changes in speculative appetite. |
| Gold Spot Price | 10% | A classic safe haven. Sharp rallies tend to coincide with fear, inflation scares or falling real rates. |
| S&P 500 Index | 10% | The broad US equity benchmark, tracked here for drawdown and momentum pressure. |
| VIX Volatility Index | 10% | Implied 30-day volatility of the S&P 500, often called the market's fear gauge. |
| WTI Crude Oil | 8% | Crude oil feeds straight into inflation and is the market most exposed to geopolitical supply shocks. |
| 10Y Term Premium | 7% | Extra compensation for holding long bonds instead of rolling bills. Rising term premium signals fiscal or inflation anxiety. |
| Dollar Index | 7% | The US dollar against major currencies. A surging dollar tightens global financial conditions. |
Want to see what happens with different weights? Try the what-if sandbox.
Risk bands
| Band | Score | Meaning | Days in band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | 0–20 | Stress indicators are calm. Normal risk-taking conditions. | 0 |
| Cautious | 20–40 | Some indicators are elevated. Worth watching, rarely worth acting on alone. | 3 |
| Risky | 40–60 | Broad stress is building. Check position sizing and hedges. | 94 |
| Nearly Crash | 60–80 | Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets. | 194 |
| Game Over | 80–100 | Extreme, crisis-like readings across markets and geopolitics. | 2 |
The geopolitical layer
Every day a language model reads recent international news and identifies the flashpoints most likely to move markets, such as wars, sanctions, shipping-lane threats, energy policy and political crises. It scores each from 0 to 100 for market impact, not for human or political importance. Scores are calibrated against the evidence found (weakly sourced claims are discounted) and combined into the geopolitical risk index.
The Geo Sentinel then turns the top flashpoint into a 30-day forecast with a probability, a likely range, explicit facts, inferences and assumptions, and a precise resolution rule, so the forecast can be checked afterwards.
Limits: language models can misread news, and coverage is weighted toward English-language sources. That's why geopolitics is only 25% of the total score.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Game Over Gauge?
A free daily 0-100 score that estimates how fragile financial markets are. It blends 10 market stress indicators with a geopolitical risk layer scored from global news.
Does a high score mean the market will crash?
No. It means many stress signals agree at the same time. High readings have often lasted weeks without a crash. Use it as a risk thermometer, not a timing signal.
How often is it updated?
Once a day at about 09:05 UTC, using the latest daily closes from public sources such as FRED.
How is geopolitical risk measured?
A language model reviews recent news, identifies market-relevant flashpoints, scores each for likely market impact and calibrates the scores against the evidence it found. The result is a 0-100 index that makes up 25% of the total.
Is the data free to use?
Yes. The JSON API, RSS feed and widget are free, with no key or sign-up. Please credit Game Over Gauge with a link.
Is this financial advice?
No. Everything on this site is for information and education only.
Privacy
There are no accounts, logins or forms on this site. We use Google Analytics 4 with IP anonymisation to count visits and see which pages are useful. Your theme preference is stored in your browser's local storage. The what-if sandbox runs entirely in your browser, and nothing you enter is sent to us. The web server keeps standard access logs for security and debugging.
Terms of use
All content, scores, forecasts and portfolio examples are general information for educational purposes. None of it is financial, investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer to buy or sell anything. Data may be delayed, incomplete or wrong. You use it at your own risk. You may reuse the data and widget freely with attribution and a link to gameovergauge.run.place (CC BY 4.0).
Contact
Found a bug or have a suggestion for a new signal? Open an issue on GitHub.