Defensive portfolio playbook for a Nearly Crash market

What do investors typically do when crash-risk readings are high? Below are three example portfolio templates matched to today's gauge reading of 70.2%. They use only highly liquid, investment-grade building blocks. There is also a plain-English guide to tokenised US Treasury bills, one of the newer ways to hold cash-like yield.

Educational examples, not advice. These templates are not personalised and ignore your taxes, jurisdiction, time horizon and existing holdings. Do your own research or speak to a licensed adviser.

Example portfolio templates

Defensive Income

Capital preservation with income generation · rebalance quarterly

  • 40% Short-term Treasuries (BIL)
    Low duration, high liquidity
  • 30% Intermediate Treasuries (IEF)
    Yield enhancement with moderate duration
  • 20% Tokenised T-Bills (BUIDL)
    On-chain yield access
  • 10% Gold (GLD)
    Inflation hedge and diversification

Minimal equity exposure; focus on high-quality fixed income and defensive assets

Balanced Core

Risk-balanced growth and income · rebalance quarterly

  • 50% US Total Bond (BND)
    Core fixed income exposure
  • 30% US Broad Equity (VTI)
    Diversified US market beta
  • 15% International Equity (VEA)
    Developed markets diversification
  • 5% Gold (IAU)
    Portfolio insurance

60/40 inspired allocation with international diversification and gold hedge

Selective Risk

Measured equity beta with income support · rebalance quarterly

  • 45% US Broad Equity (VTI)
    Core US equity exposure
  • 35% Intermediate Treasuries (IEF)
    Rate sensitivity and income
  • 15% International Equity (VXUS)
    Global diversification
  • 5% Tokenised T-Bills (USDY)
    Liquidity and short-term yield

Equity-oriented but maintains substantial fixed income anchor for risk control

How positioning usually shifts across risk bands

BandGaugeWhat it signals
Safe0–20Stress indicators are calm. Normal risk-taking conditions.
Cautious20–40Some indicators are elevated. Worth watching, rarely worth acting on alone.
Risky40–60Broad stress is building. Check position sizing and hedges.
Nearly Crash ← today60–80Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Game Over80–100Extreme, crisis-like readings across markets and geopolitics.

Tokenised US Treasury bills: who can access what

Tokenised T-bill funds hold short-dated US government debt and issue on-chain tokens that pass the yield through. They can be a cash alternative for investors who already hold stablecoins. Access rules, minimums and chains differ a lot by product. Yields change daily, so always check the issuer's own page.

Who can buyKYCChainsDetails
OndoUSDYNon-US retail (KYC + wallet whitelist)Yes Ethereum $500 Issuer docs (opens in new tab)
OndoOUSGQualified/accredited investorsYes Ethereum, Layer2 $5,000 instant Issuer docs (opens in new tab)
OpenEdenTBILLGlobal (KYC + wallet whitelist)Yes Ethereum $100,000 Issuer docs (opens in new tab)
MatrixdockSTBTAccredited/Professional investorsYes Ethereum $100,000 Issuer docs (opens in new tab)
Franklin TempletonBUIDL/FOBXXInstitutional/accreditedYes Public chain varies Issuer docs (opens in new tab)
Maple FinanceCash Management (UST bills)DAOs/funds; US accreditedYes Ethereum varies Issuer docs (opens in new tab)
SuperstateUSTBInstitutional-leaningYes Ethereum varies Issuer docs (opens in new tab)

Product list as of 2026-10-03. Not an endorsement of any issuer.