Defensive portfolio playbook for a Nearly Crash market
What do investors typically do when crash-risk readings are high? Below are three example portfolio templates matched to today's gauge reading of 70.2%. They use only highly liquid, investment-grade building blocks. There is also a plain-English guide to tokenised US Treasury bills, one of the newer ways to hold cash-like yield.
Educational examples, not advice. These templates are not personalised and ignore your taxes, jurisdiction, time horizon and existing holdings. Do your own research or speak to a licensed adviser.
Example portfolio templates
Defensive Income
Capital preservation with income generation · rebalance quarterly
40% Short-term Treasuries (BIL) Low duration, high liquidity
30% Intermediate Treasuries (IEF) Yield enhancement with moderate duration
10% Gold (GLD) Inflation hedge and diversification
Minimal equity exposure; focus on high-quality fixed income and defensive assets
Balanced Core
Risk-balanced growth and income · rebalance quarterly
50% US Total Bond (BND) Core fixed income exposure
30% US Broad Equity (VTI) Diversified US market beta
15% International Equity (VEA) Developed markets diversification
5% Gold (IAU) Portfolio insurance
60/40 inspired allocation with international diversification and gold hedge
Selective Risk
Measured equity beta with income support · rebalance quarterly
45% US Broad Equity (VTI) Core US equity exposure
35% Intermediate Treasuries (IEF) Rate sensitivity and income
15% International Equity (VXUS) Global diversification
5% Tokenised T-Bills (USDY) Liquidity and short-term yield
Equity-oriented but maintains substantial fixed income anchor for risk control
How positioning usually shifts across risk bands
Band
Gauge
What it signals
Safe
0–20
Stress indicators are calm. Normal risk-taking conditions.
Cautious
20–40
Some indicators are elevated. Worth watching, rarely worth acting on alone.
Risky
40–60
Broad stress is building. Check position sizing and hedges.
Nearly Crash ← today
60–80
Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Game Over
80–100
Extreme, crisis-like readings across markets and geopolitics.
Tokenised US Treasury bills: who can access what
Tokenised T-bill funds hold short-dated US government debt and issue on-chain tokens that pass the yield through. They can be a cash alternative for investors who already hold stablecoins. Access rules, minimums and chains differ a lot by product. Yields change daily, so always check the issuer's own page.