Game Over Gauge 70.2% Nearly Crash

Free daily market crash-risk indicator · 3 October 2026

Market crash risk today: 70.2% — Nearly Crash

The Financial Composite Gauge registered 75.9% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 70.2% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 53.0% (Risky). Primary geopolitical drivers include Russia Strikes Kyiv Bridges at 63.8% and Gaza Air Strike and Aid Delays at 59.5%. Acute financial distress significantly outpaces moderate geopolitical risk, indicating that non-geopolitical systemic pressures are driving near-crash market conditions.

vs yesterday change ±0.0 pts vs yesterday vs 1 week change +3.0 pts vs 1 week vs 1 month change +3.3 pts vs 1 month

Updated · next update ~09:05 UTC daily

70.20100
  1. Safe 0–20
  2. Cautious 20–40
  3. Risky 40–60
  4. Nearly Crash 60–80
  5. Game Over 80–100
Financial stress 75.9% 10 market indicators · 75% of total → Geopolitical risk 53.0 News-scored flashpoints · 25% of total → Market regime risk-off 50% confidence · what the market is pricing → 30-day flashpoint forecast 24% Red Sea Commercial Vessel Disablement or Loss →
Crash-risk history since 27 October 2025
02040608010021 Jun 202613 Jul 20264 Aug 20269 Sep 20263 Oct 2026
Show data table
DateTotalFinancialGeopoliticalBand
2026-10-0370.275.953.0Nearly Crash
2026-10-0270.275.654.1Nearly Crash
2026-10-0171.177.651.6Nearly Crash
2026-09-3070.376.153.0Nearly Crash
2026-09-2969.373.656.5Nearly Crash
2026-09-2865.869.654.3Nearly Crash
2026-09-2768.373.253.3Nearly Crash
2026-09-2667.273.249.1Nearly Crash
2026-09-2572.179.749.5Nearly Crash
2026-09-2471.779.149.6Nearly Crash
2026-09-2363.768.649.1Nearly Crash
2026-09-2163.969.048.5Nearly Crash
2026-09-2063.969.148.5Nearly Crash
2026-09-1964.769.151.5Nearly Crash
2026-09-1864.670.148.0Nearly Crash
2026-09-1764.369.947.4Nearly Crash
2026-09-1667.673.450.2Nearly Crash
2026-09-1568.272.854.4Nearly Crash
2026-09-1474.180.255.5Nearly Crash
2026-09-1374.280.356.1Nearly Crash
2026-09-1273.480.252.9Nearly Crash
2026-09-1066.271.750.0Nearly Crash
2026-09-0963.567.850.7Nearly Crash
2026-09-0765.070.947.4Nearly Crash
2026-09-0665.771.050.0Nearly Crash
2026-09-0566.071.050.9Nearly Crash
2026-09-0466.171.450.1Nearly Crash
2026-09-0366.971.951.9Nearly Crash
2026-08-3162.265.352.9Nearly Crash
2026-08-3062.464.655.8Nearly Crash
2026-08-2961.864.653.5Nearly Crash
2026-08-2864.468.352.6Nearly Crash
2026-08-2768.873.654.6Nearly Crash
2026-08-2670.274.956.2Nearly Crash
2026-08-2569.474.753.6Nearly Crash
2026-08-2470.074.955.4Nearly Crash
2026-08-2368.473.453.2Nearly Crash
2026-08-2271.676.357.4Nearly Crash
2026-08-1170.875.457.1Nearly Crash
2026-08-1064.467.953.7Nearly Crash
2026-08-0969.974.456.3Nearly Crash
2026-08-0870.074.556.6Nearly Crash
2026-08-0769.374.155.0Nearly Crash
2026-08-0669.372.659.2Nearly Crash
2026-08-0568.670.463.4Nearly Crash
2026-08-0463.564.959.4Nearly Crash
2026-08-0363.564.061.9Nearly Crash
2026-08-0265.066.461.0Nearly Crash
2026-08-0165.866.463.9Nearly Crash
2026-07-3172.775.863.5Nearly Crash
2026-07-3066.567.862.5Nearly Crash
2026-07-2963.664.860.0Nearly Crash
2026-07-2863.264.659.2Nearly Crash
2026-07-2763.465.257.9Nearly Crash
2026-07-2668.370.362.1Nearly Crash
2026-07-2567.570.159.6Nearly Crash
2026-07-2480.285.863.3Game Over
2026-07-2367.969.064.3Nearly Crash
2026-07-2267.568.764.0Nearly Crash
2026-07-2167.769.362.8Nearly Crash

What's pushing risk up today

Indicators ranked by how many points they add to the financial score (score × weight).

  1. US 10Y Real Yield +12.0 pts Now 2.88% · 5-day +0.03 pp
  2. US 10Y Treasury Yield +11.1 pts Now 5.24% · 5-day +0.06 pp
  3. Bitcoin/USD +10.0 pts Now $84,625 · 5-day +$549
  4. Gold Spot Price +10.0 pts Now $4,162 · 5-day −$159
  5. S&P 500 Index +10.0 pts Now 7,722.72 · 5-day −20.69

See all 10 signals and test your own weights →

Top geopolitical flashpoints

Scored daily from global news for likely market impact (0–100).

  1. Russia Strikes Kyiv Bridges 64 Further attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine could disrupt supply chains and impact energy prices, increasing geopolitical risk sentiment.
  2. Gaza Air Strike and Aid Delays 60 Continued conflict and aid blockages in Gaza can lead to regional instability, impacting oil prices and global risk sentiment.
  3. Yemen Army Claims Houthi Casualties 39 Escalation in Yemen could threaten Red Sea shipping lanes, impacting global trade and shipping costs.

Full geopolitical risk index and 30-day forecast →

Latest daily briefings

Browse 293 briefings and the risk calendar →

How to read the gauge

One number for market fragility

The gauge combines credit spreads, Treasury and real yields, volatility, equities, oil, gold, bitcoin and the dollar into a financial stress score. A geopolitical layer is then blended in, giving a single score from 0 to 100.

A thermometer, not a timer

High readings mean several stress signals agree. That has often come before sharp sell-offs, but it can also last for weeks. Use it to size risk and plan hedges, not to time exact tops.

Free and transparent

Every input, weight and adjustment is published on the signals page and in the methodology. You can pull the data with the free API or embed the widget on your own site.

Since 27 October 2025 the gauge has averaged 62.1%, peaking at 80.7% on 14 Dec 2025 with a low of 25.2% on 27 Oct 2025.

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