The financial side of the Game Over Gauge is built from 10 public market indicators. Each is scored 0–100 for stress and then weighted. Today they add up to a financial stress score of 75.9%. Blended with geopolitical risk, that gives the overall reading of 70.2% (Nearly Crash).
Trend penalty: 3.5 (High Yield Spread: 15.7% ↑ → 5.0 penalty) | Regime: risk_off
The 10-year TIPS yield: borrowing cost after inflation. High real yields squeeze growth stocks and leveraged borrowers.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 0.50 or calmer and 100 at 2.50 or worse · Source: FRED.
The 10-year Treasury yield sets the price of money for mortgages, corporate debt and equity valuations.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 2.00 or calmer and 100 at 5.50 or worse · Source: FRED.
A high-beta liquidity barometer: large swings often reflect changes in speculative appetite.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 26000.00 or calmer and 100 at 74000.00 or worse · Source: COINGECKO.
A classic safe haven. Sharp rallies tend to coincide with fear, inflation scares or falling real rates.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 1900.00 or calmer and 100 at 2300.00 or worse · Source: YAHOO.
The broad US equity benchmark, tracked here for drawdown and momentum pressure.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 4500.00 or calmer and 100 at 5200.00 or worse · Source: YAHOO.
Crude oil feeds straight into inflation and is the market most exposed to geopolitical supply shocks.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 59.00 or calmer and 100 at 91.00 or worse · Source: YAHOO.
Extra compensation for holding long bonds instead of rolling bills. Rising term premium signals fiscal or inflation anxiety.
Scoring: stress is 0 at -1.10 or calmer and 100 at 2.10 or worse · Source: FRED.
Implied 30-day volatility of the S&P 500, often called the market's fear gauge.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 9.00 or calmer and 100 at 41.00 or worse · Source: FRED.
The US dollar against major currencies. A surging dollar tightens global financial conditions.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 101.20 or calmer and 100 at 104.80 or worse · Source: YAHOO.
The extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds. Spreads widen fast when credit markets fear defaults.
Scoring: stress is 0 at 3.50 or calmer and 100 at 7.00 or worse · Source: FRED.
Disagree with our weights, or want to stress-test a scenario such as “VIX spikes to 40”? Move the sliders and the score updates instantly. Your settings are saved in the link so you can share them.
| Indicator | Stress score (0–100) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Real Yield | ||
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | ||
| Bitcoin/USD | ||
| Gold Spot Price | ||
| S&P 500 Index | ||
| WTI Crude Oil | ||
| 10Y Term Premium | ||
| VIX Volatility Index | ||
| Dollar Index | ||
| High Yield Credit Spread | ||
| Geopolitical risk index |
Indicator weights are re-normalised to 100%. Geopolitical weight is its share of the final score. The sandbox runs entirely in your browser.
The gauge classifies the current mix of rates, credit, volatility and commodities into a market regime. The detected regime scales the financial score up or down, because the same reading means more in a crisis regime than in a growth regime.