Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 27 October 2025: 25.2% (Cautious)
vs previous day: n/a vs 1 week earlier: n/a
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge25.2%Some indicators are elevated (methodology v1).
Financial stress27.9%
Geopolitical risk12.0
Overall risk is 25.2% (Cautious). The financial composite is 27.9% (Cautious), while the geopolitical composite is 12.0% (Low).
Top geopolitical stressors
US-China talks (impact -4)
Middle East shipping (impact -2)
US elections (impact -6)
Key market indicators
| Indicator | Latest | 5D Δ | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury Yield (Nominal, %) | 4.02 | 0.00 | 33.78 | 20.00% |
| US 10Y TIPS Real Yield (%, CPI-adjusted) | 1.73 | -0.02 | 57.67 | 25.00% |
| US High Yield OAS (%, BofA ICE) | 2.88 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 30.00% |
| VIX (Implied Volatility) | 16.37 | -4.41 | 13.24 | 15.00% |
| 10Y Term Premium | 0.43 | -0.04 | 47.70 | 10.00% |
| Geopolitical Composite | 12 | n/a | 12 | 5.00% |
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | 48.5 | 46.0 | 62.8 | Cautious |
| 2025-11-10 | 55.3 | 54.7 | 58.7 | Risky |
| 2025-11-07 | 57.7 | 55.9 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2025-11-06 | 53.6 | 50.6 | 70.7 | Risky |
| 2025-11-05 | 54.3 | 53.1 | 61.4 | Risky |
| 2025-11-04 | 49.5 | 45.8 | 70.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-11-03 | 49.7 | 45.0 | 76.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-10-31 | 49.5 | 43.4 | 83.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-10-30 | 46.2 | 38.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-10-29 | 45.1 | 37.5 | 88.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-10-28 | 42.7 | 35.0 | 86.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-10-27 | 45.5 | 38.1 | 87.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-10-24 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 87.0 | Risky |
| 2025-10-23 | 55.7 | 49.8 | 89.0 | Risky |
| 2025-10-22 | 53.1 | 46.3 | 91.3 | Risky |
| 2025-10-21 | 54.1 | 47.6 | 90.7 | Risky |
| 2025-10-20 | 60.7 | 55.2 | 91.7 | Risky |
| 2025-10-17 | 64.4 | 59.6 | 91.7 | Risky |
| 2025-10-16 | 59.2 | 53.9 | 89.7 | Risky |
| 2025-10-15 | 60.7 | 55.7 | 89.2 | Risky |
| 2025-10-14 | 58.9 | 54.0 | 86.4 | Risky |
| 2025-10-13 | 62.8 | 58.5 | 87.0 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.