Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 7 March 2026: 70.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +6.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +16.1 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 72.5% (Nearly Crash), Overall Gauge hit 70.3% (Nearly Crash), and Geopolitical Layer is 63.8% (Severe).
Missile interceptions and airport attack drove geopolitical concerns.
These factors suggest heightened risk aversion and potential market volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Missile Interceptions Over GCC States75Interceptions over Saudi Arabia and UAE heighten credit/risk sentiment volatility and threaten critical oil production infrastructure.
- Dubai International Airport Attack70Direct strikes on a global transit hub disrupt shipping lanes/chokepoints for air cargo and international business travel.
- US Demand for Iranian Surrender72Demands for 'unconditional surrender' increase the probability of prolonged sanctions/trade disruption and total removal of Iranian crude from markets.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +2099.63
- S&P 500 Index −138.86
- Gold Spot Price −84.40
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 70.5 | 69.1 | 78.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-19 | 68.9 | 67.6 | 76.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-18 | 66.1 | 64.7 | 74.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-17 | 68.1 | 66.6 | 76.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-16 | 70.3 | 69.2 | 77.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-13 | 70.0 | 68.5 | 78.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-12 | 65.6 | 63.5 | 77.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-11 | 63.0 | 60.8 | 75.5 | Risky |
| 2026-03-10 | 64.6 | 63.0 | 73.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-09 | 65.6 | 63.7 | 76.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-06 | 61.0 | 58.5 | 75.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-05 | 57.7 | 54.5 | 75.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-04 | 62.5 | 60.3 | 75.0 | Risky |
| 2026-03-03 | 58.1 | 56.1 | 69.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-02 | 56.4 | 54.5 | 66.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-27 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 57.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-26 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 55.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-25 | 50.8 | 50.4 | 52.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-24 | 53.2 | 53.1 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-23 | 47.5 | 46.6 | 52.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-20 | 48.0 | 49.1 | 41.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.