Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 5 March 2026: 68.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +13.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 69.1% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 68.4% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 66.3% (Severe). Primary drivers are direct US-Israel strikes on Iran (92.0%) and a US submarine sinking an Iranian warship (88.0%). This severe escalation suggests an immediate flight to safety and heightened risk of a broad market correction.
Geopolitical drivers
- Direct US-Israel military strikes on Iran92Direct military strikes on Iranian territory threaten global energy supply and could lead to a sustained spike in crude oil prices.
- US submarine sinks Iranian warship88The sinking of an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean increases risks to critical shipping lanes and global maritime trade chokepoints.
- NATO interception of Iranian missiles60Missile incidents involving Turkey and NATO interceptions raise the probability of great-power escalation and broader regional instability.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +4574.99
- S&P 500 Index −76.63
- WTI Crude Oil +11.00
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 70.5 | 69.1 | 78.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-19 | 68.9 | 67.6 | 76.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-18 | 66.1 | 64.7 | 74.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-17 | 68.1 | 66.6 | 76.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-16 | 70.3 | 69.2 | 77.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-13 | 70.0 | 68.5 | 78.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-12 | 65.6 | 63.5 | 77.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-11 | 63.0 | 60.8 | 75.5 | Risky |
| 2026-03-10 | 64.6 | 63.0 | 73.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-09 | 65.6 | 63.7 | 76.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-06 | 61.0 | 58.5 | 75.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-05 | 57.7 | 54.5 | 75.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-04 | 62.5 | 60.3 | 75.0 | Risky |
| 2026-03-03 | 58.1 | 56.1 | 69.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-02 | 56.4 | 54.5 | 66.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-27 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 57.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-26 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 55.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-25 | 50.8 | 50.4 | 52.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-24 | 53.2 | 53.1 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-23 | 47.5 | 46.6 | 52.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-20 | 48.0 | 49.1 | 41.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-19 | 46.1 | 46.9 | 41.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-18 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 44.9 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.