Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 2 March 2026: 58.5% (Risky)
vs previous day change +4.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +2.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 58.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 58.5% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 60.1% (Severe). Primary drivers include direct US-Israeli strikes on Iran and significant shipping threats within the Strait of Hormuz. This severe geopolitical pressure may trigger defensive positioning, potentially decoupling market performance from underlying financial metrics.
Geopolitical drivers
- Direct US-Israeli strikes on Iran95Direct military strikes on Iran by US and Israeli forces trigger immediate spikes in oil prices and a flight to safety in global equity markets. (energy supply/prices)
- Strait of Hormuz shipping threat92Threats to the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint risk a total halt of regional crude exports, directly impacting global energy supply and maritime shipping lanes. (shipping lanes/chokepoints)
- Saudi Aramco refinery strike88Missile strikes on Saudi Aramco refineries directly threaten global oil production capacity and increase volatility in energy futures. (energy supply/prices)
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1295.40
- Gold Spot Price +202.20
- S&P 500 Index −30.63
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 68.1 | 66.6 | 76.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-16 | 70.3 | 69.2 | 77.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-13 | 70.0 | 68.5 | 78.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-12 | 65.6 | 63.5 | 77.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-11 | 63.0 | 60.8 | 75.5 | Risky |
| 2026-03-10 | 64.6 | 63.0 | 73.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-09 | 65.6 | 63.7 | 76.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-06 | 61.0 | 58.5 | 75.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-05 | 57.7 | 54.5 | 75.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-04 | 62.5 | 60.3 | 75.0 | Risky |
| 2026-03-03 | 58.1 | 56.1 | 69.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-02 | 56.4 | 54.5 | 66.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-27 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 57.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-26 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 55.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-25 | 50.8 | 50.4 | 52.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-24 | 53.2 | 53.1 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-23 | 47.5 | 46.6 | 52.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-20 | 48.0 | 49.1 | 41.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-19 | 46.1 | 46.9 | 41.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-18 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 44.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-17 | 49.5 | 49.4 | 50.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-16 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 50.9 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.