Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 26 February 2026: 55.0% (Risky)
vs previous day change +0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +2.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 54.3% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 55.0% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 57.1% (Risky). Primary geopolitical drivers include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and diplomacy alongside US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. This elevated risk profile suggests heightened market volatility and potential downward pressure on global asset valuations.
Geopolitical drivers
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Diplomacy82Ongoing Russian missile strikes during Geneva diplomatic meetings maintain high volatility for energy supply/prices and sanctions/trade disruption.
- US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva75The commencement of nuclear talks in Geneva directly influences energy supply/prices and the security of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Israeli Military Incursion in Syria55Israel’s military activity in Syria’s Quneitra increases the risk of great-power escalation and regional disruption to energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +2134.22
- Gold Spot Price +222.70
- S&P 500 Index +64.82
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | 70.0 | 68.5 | 78.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-12 | 65.6 | 63.5 | 77.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-11 | 63.0 | 60.8 | 75.5 | Risky |
| 2026-03-10 | 64.6 | 63.0 | 73.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-09 | 65.6 | 63.7 | 76.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-06 | 61.0 | 58.5 | 75.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-05 | 57.7 | 54.5 | 75.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-04 | 62.5 | 60.3 | 75.0 | Risky |
| 2026-03-03 | 58.1 | 56.1 | 69.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-02 | 56.4 | 54.5 | 66.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-27 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 57.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-26 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 55.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-25 | 50.8 | 50.4 | 52.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-24 | 53.2 | 53.1 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-23 | 47.5 | 46.6 | 52.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-20 | 48.0 | 49.1 | 41.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-19 | 46.1 | 46.9 | 41.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-18 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 44.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-17 | 49.5 | 49.4 | 50.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-16 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 50.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-13 | 50.0 | 48.5 | 58.9 | Risky |
| 2026-02-12 | 42.1 | 39.2 | 58.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-11 | 42.6 | 39.2 | 61.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.