Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 31 October 2026: 53.2% (Risky)
vs previous day change +1.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −4.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge53.2%Stress is broadly above its 10-year norm. Check position sizing and hedges.
Financial stress52.7%
Geopolitical risk56.2
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Overall Gauge reads 53.2 (Risky); financial stress is 52.7 (Risky) and the geopolitical layer is 56.2 (Risky). Main financial contributors: S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high (stress percentile 61); High-yield credit spread (stress percentile 78); VIX volatility index (stress percentile 50). Geopolitical drivers: Strait of Hormuz Tanker Mining Incidents (57.4); US Patriot Aid Package and Black Sea Mining Risks (43.4).
Geopolitical drivers
- Strait of Hormuz Tanker Mining Incidents57Mines striking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz threaten critical oil transit routes, directly pressuring global energy prices and shipping insurance costs.
- US Patriot Aid Package and Black Sea Mining Risks43Approved multi-billion-dollar military aid alongside ongoing Black Sea naval mine hazards sustains great-power escalation concerns and elevates maritime commodity logistics risks.
- Houthi Missile Threat and Regional Strike Capabilities45Potential Russian intelligence support for Houthi targeting prolongs threats to commercial shipping lanes and elevates regional security risk premia.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | 53.2 | 52.7 | 56.2 | Risky |
| 2026-10-28 | 52.0 | 51.7 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-27 | 56.2 | 56.5 | 54.3 | Risky |
| 2026-10-24 | 58.0 | 58.5 | 55.6 | Risky |
| 2026-10-23 | 56.6 | 56.2 | 58.5 | Risky |
| 2026-10-22 | 51.5 | 50.6 | 56.9 | Risky |
| 2026-10-21 | 54.0 | 53.6 | 56.0 | Risky |
| 2026-10-20 | 56.0 | 55.7 | 57.6 | Risky |
| 2026-10-19 | 54.4 | 53.6 | 58.8 | Risky |
| 2026-10-18 | 54.9 | 53.7 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-17 | 55.2 | 53.7 | 63.5 | Risky |
| 2026-10-16 | 52.5 | 50.2 | 65.5 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.