Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 16 October 2026: 52.5% (Risky)
vs previous day change −0.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier: n/a
Game Over Gauge52.5%Stress is broadly above its 10-year norm. Check position sizing and hedges.
Financial stress50.2%
Geopolitical risk65.5
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Overall Gauge reads 52.5 (Risky); financial stress is 50.2 (Risky) and the geopolitical layer is 65.5 (Severe). Main financial contributors: S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high (stress percentile 41); High-yield credit spread (stress percentile 77); VIX volatility index (stress percentile 48). Geopolitical drivers: Strait of Hormuz Ship Attacks Threaten Crude Transit (56.4); Iran Sanctions Pressure and Regional Confrontation (50.1).
Geopolitical drivers
- Strait of Hormuz Ship Attacks Threaten Crude Transit56Record attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz directly disrupt maritime shipping lanes and threaten crude oil supply flow, elevating maritime insurance premiums and global freight rates.
- Iran Sanctions Pressure and Regional Confrontation50Mounting US sanctions on Iran alongside regional friction over Hezbollah heighten geopolitical friction, feeding broader risk sentiment volatility across Middle Eastern markets.
- Western Alignment Frictions Over Ukraine Support47Diverging political stances between Washington and European allies threaten the predictability of defense funding, weighing on European credit and risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 52.5 | 50.2 | 65.5 | Risky |
| 2026-10-15 | 53.1 | 51.2 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-10-14 | 46.9 | 44.3 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-13 | 47.4 | 44.3 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-11 | 46.8 | 43.7 | 64.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-10 | 46.4 | 43.7 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.