Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 28 October 2026: 52.0% (Risky)
vs previous day change −4.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge52.0%Stress is broadly above its 10-year norm. Check position sizing and hedges.
Financial stress51.7%
Geopolitical risk53.7
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Overall Gauge stands at 52.0/100, the financial stress score is 51.7/100, and the geopolitical layer is 53.7/100, all categorized as Risky.
Main contributors are high-yield credit spreads, VIX volatility, S&P 500 drawdowns, and Russian strikes on Kharkiv with protracted war.
These elevated readings reflect heightened market stress and an environment of increased financial fragility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Russian Strikes on Kharkiv and Protracted War37Ongoing Russian strikes across Ukrainian urban and infrastructure centers sustain regional security risks, feeding into European credit/risk sentiment and energy market risk premia.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 52.0 | 51.7 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-27 | 56.2 | 56.5 | 54.3 | Risky |
| 2026-10-24 | 58.0 | 58.5 | 55.6 | Risky |
| 2026-10-23 | 56.6 | 56.2 | 58.5 | Risky |
| 2026-10-22 | 51.5 | 50.6 | 56.9 | Risky |
| 2026-10-21 | 54.0 | 53.6 | 56.0 | Risky |
| 2026-10-20 | 56.0 | 55.7 | 57.6 | Risky |
| 2026-10-19 | 54.4 | 53.6 | 58.8 | Risky |
| 2026-10-18 | 54.9 | 53.7 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-17 | 55.2 | 53.7 | 63.5 | Risky |
| 2026-10-16 | 52.5 | 50.2 | 65.5 | Risky |
| 2026-10-15 | 53.1 | 51.2 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-10-14 | 46.9 | 44.3 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-13 | 47.4 | 44.3 | 64.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.