Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 1 November 2026: 53.1% (Risky)
vs previous day change −0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −4.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge53.1%Stress is broadly above its 10-year norm. Check position sizing and hedges.
Financial stress52.7%
Geopolitical risk55.4
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Overall Gauge stands at 53.1/100 (Risky), the financial stress score is 52.7/100 (Risky), and the geopolitical layer is 55.4/100 (Risky). Key drivers include high-yield credit spreads, S&P 500 drawdowns, the VIX, and Middle East Hostilities and US-Iran Diplomatic Positioning. These readings indicate heightened market vulnerability and elevated cross-asset pressure across financial systems.
Geopolitical drivers
- Middle East Hostilities and US-Iran Diplomatic Positioning39Sustained military operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon sustain baseline geopolitical stress, while diplomatic posturing between Washington and Tehran buffers immediate escalation risks in energy prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 53.1 | 52.7 | 55.4 | Risky |
| 2026-10-31 | 53.2 | 52.7 | 56.2 | Risky |
| 2026-10-28 | 52.0 | 51.7 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-27 | 56.2 | 56.5 | 54.3 | Risky |
| 2026-10-24 | 58.0 | 58.5 | 55.6 | Risky |
| 2026-10-23 | 56.6 | 56.2 | 58.5 | Risky |
| 2026-10-22 | 51.5 | 50.6 | 56.9 | Risky |
| 2026-10-21 | 54.0 | 53.6 | 56.0 | Risky |
| 2026-10-20 | 56.0 | 55.7 | 57.6 | Risky |
| 2026-10-19 | 54.4 | 53.6 | 58.8 | Risky |
| 2026-10-18 | 54.9 | 53.7 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-17 | 55.2 | 53.7 | 63.5 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.