Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 26 November 2025: 49.0% (Risky)
vs previous day change −2.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +23.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge49.0%Broad stress is building (methodology v1).
Financial stress31.5%
Geopolitical risk70.1
Overall risk is 49.0% (Risky). The financial composite is 31.5% (Cautious), while the geopolitical composite is 70.1% (Severe).
Top geopolitical stressors
Intensification of Cross-Strait Military Buildup (20.4% weight)
Escalation Risk from Potential Western Military Deployment in Ukraine, offset by Diplomatic Talks (18.2% weight)
Rising Instability and Proxy Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa (17.1% weight)
Key market indicators
| Indicator | Latest | 5D Δ | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury Yield (Nominal, %) | 4.04 | -0.09 | 34.22 | 20.00% |
| US 10Y TIPS Real Yield (%, CPI-adjusted) | 1.81 | -0.05 | 60.33 | 25.00% |
| US High Yield OAS (%, BofA ICE) | 3.15 | -0.02 | 2.50 | 30.00% |
| VIX (Implied Volatility) | 20.52 | -3.14 | 25.82 | 15.00% |
| 10Y Term Premium | 0.47 | -0.04 | 49.05 | 10.00% |
| Geopolitical Composite | 70.09 | n/a | 70.09 | 5.00% |
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | 39.6 | 36.7 | 56.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-10 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-09 | 45.3 | 41.7 | 65.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-08 | 39.9 | 35.5 | 65.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-05 | 42.6 | 37.7 | 70.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-04 | 47.1 | 41.4 | 79.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-03 | 50.4 | 45.0 | 81.4 | Risky |
| 2025-12-02 | 54.5 | 49.2 | 84.4 | Risky |
| 2025-12-01 | 52.0 | 46.9 | 81.4 | Risky |
| 2025-11-28 | 54.8 | 53.0 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2025-11-27 | 50.4 | 50.5 | 50.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-26 | 53.2 | 55.5 | 40.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-25 | 56.3 | 60.2 | 33.9 | Risky |
| 2025-11-24 | 60.5 | 64.0 | 40.7 | Risky |
| 2025-11-21 | 59.9 | 65.7 | 27.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-20 | 59.7 | 64.7 | 31.6 | Risky |
| 2025-11-19 | 60.5 | 65.8 | 30.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-18 | 55.6 | 62.1 | 19.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-17 | 51.6 | 57.0 | 21.0 | Risky |
| 2025-11-14 | 53.6 | 56.4 | 38.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-13 | 44.6 | 45.6 | 38.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-11-12 | 46.5 | 44.4 | 58.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-11-11 | 48.5 | 46.0 | 62.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.