Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 11 December 2025: 49.0% (Risky)
vs previous day change −0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +2.1 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge49.0%Broad stress is building (methodology v1).
Financial stress30.8%
Geopolitical risk72.6
Overall risk is 49.0% (Risky). The financial composite is 30.8% (Cautious), while the geopolitical composite is 72.6% (Severe).
Top geopolitical stressors
US-Venezuela Maritime Confrontation and Oil Supply Risk (22.7% weight)
Intensified Targeting of Civilians in Myanmar Conflict (21.3% weight)
Deepening Humanitarian Crises Exacerbated by Weather and Conflict (20.0% weight)
Key market indicators
| Indicator | Latest | 5D Δ | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury Yield (Nominal, %) | 4.18 | 0.07 | 37.33 | 20.00% |
| US 10Y TIPS Real Yield (%, CPI-adjusted) | 1.92 | 0.07 | 64.00 | 25.00% |
| US High Yield OAS (%, BofA ICE) | 2.89 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 30.00% |
| VIX (Implied Volatility) | 16.93 | 1.15 | 14.94 | 15.00% |
| 10Y Term Premium | 0.53 | 0.08 | 51.09 | 10.00% |
| Geopolitical Composite | 72.56 | n/a | 72.56 | 5.00% |
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 34.4 | 27.5 | 73.0 | Safe |
| 2025-12-25 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 78.2 | Safe |
| 2025-12-24 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 87.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-23 | 41.2 | 32.3 | 91.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.5 | 36.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-17 | 47.9 | 43.3 | 73.6 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.1 | 42.3 | 54.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-15 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 55.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-12 | 35.4 | 31.9 | 55.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-11 | 39.6 | 36.7 | 56.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-10 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-09 | 45.3 | 41.7 | 65.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-08 | 39.9 | 35.5 | 65.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-05 | 42.6 | 37.7 | 70.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-04 | 47.1 | 41.4 | 79.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-03 | 50.4 | 45.0 | 81.4 | Risky |
| 2025-12-02 | 54.5 | 49.2 | 84.4 | Risky |
| 2025-12-01 | 52.0 | 46.9 | 81.4 | Risky |
| 2025-11-28 | 54.8 | 53.0 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2025-11-27 | 50.4 | 50.5 | 50.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-26 | 53.2 | 55.5 | 40.1 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.