Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 4 December 2025: 46.9% (Risky)
vs previous day change −1.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge46.9%Broad stress is building (methodology v1).
Financial stress29.4%
Geopolitical risk70.1
Overall risk is 46.9% (Risky). The financial composite is 29.4% (Cautious), while the geopolitical composite is 70.1% (Severe).
Top geopolitical stressors
Gaza Conflict Intensity and Humanitarian Access Disputes (25.0% weight)
Strengthening Russia-India Strategic Alignment (20.0% weight)
Deepening Internal Conflict and Siege Conditions in Sudan (15.0% weight)
Key market indicators
| Indicator | Latest | 5D Δ | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury Yield (Nominal, %) | 4.09 | 0.09 | 35.33 | 20.00% |
| US 10Y TIPS Real Yield (%, CPI-adjusted) | 1.85 | 0.08 | 61.67 | 25.00% |
| US High Yield OAS (%, BofA ICE) | 2.92 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 30.00% |
| VIX (Implied Volatility) | 16.59 | -0.62 | 13.91 | 15.00% |
| 10Y Term Premium | 0.45 | -0.02 | 48.36 | 10.00% |
| Geopolitical Composite | 70.09 | n/a | 70.09 | 5.00% |
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-17 | 47.9 | 43.3 | 73.6 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.1 | 42.3 | 54.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-15 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 55.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-12 | 35.4 | 31.9 | 55.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-11 | 39.6 | 36.7 | 56.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-10 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-09 | 45.3 | 41.7 | 65.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-08 | 39.9 | 35.5 | 65.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-05 | 42.6 | 37.7 | 70.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-04 | 47.1 | 41.4 | 79.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-03 | 50.4 | 45.0 | 81.4 | Risky |
| 2025-12-02 | 54.5 | 49.2 | 84.4 | Risky |
| 2025-12-01 | 52.0 | 46.9 | 81.4 | Risky |
| 2025-11-28 | 54.8 | 53.0 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2025-11-27 | 50.4 | 50.5 | 50.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-26 | 53.2 | 55.5 | 40.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-25 | 56.3 | 60.2 | 33.9 | Risky |
| 2025-11-24 | 60.5 | 64.0 | 40.7 | Risky |
| 2025-11-21 | 59.9 | 65.7 | 27.1 | Risky |
| 2025-11-20 | 59.7 | 64.7 | 31.6 | Risky |
| 2025-11-19 | 60.5 | 65.8 | 30.1 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.