Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 28 December 2025: 49.0% (Risky)
vs previous day change +0.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −7.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 52.8% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 49.0% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 37.5% (Elevated). Key drivers include Ukraine's peace talk stance and Brazil's court action against Bolsonaro accomplices. Elevated geopolitical risk is contributing to the overall Risky band, demanding cautious market positioning.
Composite: 49.0% (Risky)
Regime: mixed
Geopolitical: 37.5% (Elevated)
Market insight: The Financial Composite Gauge registered 52.8% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 49.0% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 37.5% (Elevated). Key drivers include Ukraine's peace talk stance and Brazil's court action against Bolsonaro accomplices. Elevated geopolitical risk is contributing to the overall Risky band, demanding cautious market positioning.
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.2 | 29.8 | 92.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-06 | 41.9 | 33.5 | 89.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-05 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 91.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-02 | 43.3 | 35.9 | 85.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-01 | 43.2 | 37.9 | 73.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-31 | 42.1 | 35.8 | 78.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-30 | 42.0 | 35.1 | 81.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-29 | 36.8 | 30.7 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-26 | 34.4 | 27.5 | 73.0 | Safe |
| 2025-12-25 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 78.2 | Safe |
| 2025-12-24 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 87.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-23 | 41.2 | 32.3 | 91.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.5 | 36.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-17 | 47.9 | 43.3 | 73.6 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.1 | 42.3 | 54.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-15 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 55.4 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.