Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 30 December 2025: 54.7% (Risky)
vs previous day change +0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −2.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 56.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 54.7% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 50.5% (Severe).
Intensification of the Ukraine War and rising Russian losses remain the primary geopolitical drivers, followed by Iran protests.
The Severe geopolitical reading suggests external risk is disproportionately driving the overall market's current Risky posture.
Composite: 54.7% (Risky)
Regime: risk off
Geopolitical: 50.5% (Severe)
Market insight: The Financial Composite Gauge registered 56.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 54.7% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 50.5% (Severe). Intensification of the Ukraine War and rising Russian losses remain the primary geopolitical drivers, followed by Iran protests. The Severe geopolitical reading suggests external risk is disproportionately driving the overall market's current Risky posture.
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.2 | 29.8 | 92.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-06 | 41.9 | 33.5 | 89.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-05 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 91.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-02 | 43.3 | 35.9 | 85.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-01 | 43.2 | 37.9 | 73.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-31 | 42.1 | 35.8 | 78.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-30 | 42.0 | 35.1 | 81.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-29 | 36.8 | 30.7 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-26 | 34.4 | 27.5 | 73.0 | Safe |
| 2025-12-25 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 78.2 | Safe |
| 2025-12-24 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 87.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-23 | 41.2 | 32.3 | 91.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.5 | 36.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-17 | 47.9 | 43.3 | 73.6 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.1 | 42.3 | 54.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-15 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 55.4 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.