Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 2 January 2026: 46.9% (Risky)
vs previous day change +3.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −2.1 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge is 52.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge is 46.9% (Risky), and Geopolitical risk is 31.7% (Elevated). Key drivers are high Russian casualties in Ukraine and BYD's projected lead in the global EV market. The dual Risky readings suggest sustained market caution driven by elevated geopolitical instability.
Composite: 46.9% (Risky)
Regime: mixed
Geopolitical: 31.7% (Elevated)
Market insight: The Financial Composite Gauge is 52.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge is 46.9% (Risky), and Geopolitical risk is 31.7% (Elevated). Key drivers are high Russian casualties in Ukraine and BYD's projected lead in the global EV market. The dual Risky readings suggest sustained market caution driven by elevated geopolitical instability.
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 34.4 | 29.7 | 60.5 | Safe |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.4 | 35.1 | 96.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.2 | 29.8 | 92.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-06 | 41.9 | 33.5 | 89.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-05 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 91.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-02 | 43.3 | 35.9 | 85.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-01 | 43.2 | 37.9 | 73.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-31 | 42.1 | 35.8 | 78.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-30 | 42.0 | 35.1 | 81.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-29 | 36.8 | 30.7 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-26 | 34.4 | 27.5 | 73.0 | Safe |
| 2025-12-25 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 78.2 | Safe |
| 2025-12-24 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 87.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-23 | 41.2 | 32.3 | 91.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.5 | 36.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.