Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 26 December 2025: 49.0% (Risky)
vs previous day change −0.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −8.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge was 52.9% (Risky), the Overall Gauge was 49.0% (Risky), and Geopolitical risk hit 37.4% (Elevated).
Key drivers included Ukraine peace discussions (65.0%) and severe fatal rain storms in California (36.1%).
Despite peace talks, both the Financial and Overall Gauges remain firmly in the high-risk band.
Composite: 49.0% (Risky)
Regime: mixed
Geopolitical: 37.4% (Elevated)
Market insight: The Financial Composite Gauge was 52.9% (Risky), the Overall Gauge was 49.0% (Risky), and Geopolitical risk hit 37.4% (Elevated). Key drivers included Ukraine peace discussions (65.0%) and severe fatal rain storms in California (36.1%). Despite peace talks, both the Financial and Overall Gauges remain firmly in the high-risk band.
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.2 | 29.8 | 92.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-06 | 41.9 | 33.5 | 89.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-05 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 91.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-02 | 43.3 | 35.9 | 85.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-01 | 43.2 | 37.9 | 73.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-31 | 42.1 | 35.8 | 78.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-30 | 42.0 | 35.1 | 81.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-29 | 36.8 | 30.7 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-26 | 34.4 | 27.5 | 73.0 | Safe |
| 2025-12-25 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 78.2 | Safe |
| 2025-12-24 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 87.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-23 | 41.2 | 32.3 | 91.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.5 | 36.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-17 | 47.9 | 43.3 | 73.6 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.1 | 42.3 | 54.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-15 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 55.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-12 | 35.4 | 31.9 | 55.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-11 | 39.6 | 36.7 | 56.1 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.