Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 19 December 2025: 57.3% (Risky)
vs previous day change +1.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +9.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 53.6% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 57.3% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 68.5% (Severe).
Drivers include US-hosted Gaza ceasefire talks and the EU loan to Ukraine amidst Russian asset use disputes.
The Severe Geopolitical score indicates external risks are escalating faster than current market gauges are reflecting.
Composite: 57.3% (Risky)
Regime: mixed
Geopolitical: 68.5% (Severe)
Market insight: The Financial Composite Gauge registered 53.6% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 57.3% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 68.5% (Severe). Drivers include US-hosted Gaza ceasefire talks and the EU loan to Ukraine amidst Russian asset use disputes. The Severe Geopolitical score indicates external risks are escalating faster than current market gauges are reflecting.
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 43.3 | 35.9 | 85.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-01 | 43.2 | 37.9 | 73.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-31 | 42.1 | 35.8 | 78.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-30 | 42.0 | 35.1 | 81.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-29 | 36.8 | 30.7 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-26 | 34.4 | 27.5 | 73.0 | Safe |
| 2025-12-25 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 78.2 | Safe |
| 2025-12-24 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 87.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-23 | 41.2 | 32.3 | 91.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.5 | 36.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-17 | 47.9 | 43.3 | 73.6 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.1 | 42.3 | 54.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-15 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 55.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-12 | 35.4 | 31.9 | 55.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-11 | 39.6 | 36.7 | 56.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-10 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-09 | 45.3 | 41.7 | 65.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-08 | 39.9 | 35.5 | 65.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-05 | 42.6 | 37.7 | 70.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-04 | 47.1 | 41.4 | 79.1 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.