Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 7 May 2026: 69.1% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −2.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +5.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 70.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 69.1% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 64.5% (Severe). Key drivers include Israel’s Beirut strikes and Iran’s drone footage release amid diplomatic reviews of US proposals. These elevated scores indicate extreme systemic risk and potential for sharp corrections as regional instability intensifies.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran war day 69: Tehran reviewing US proposals; Israel bombs Beirut95Ongoing conflict directly threatens energy supply and shipping lanes in the Middle East, spiking oil prices.
- Iran releases video said to show US drone shot down over Hormuz90Escalation near Strait of Hormuz risks disruption of oil tanker traffic, impacting global energy supply.
- French warship moves towards Hormuz for possible defensive mission85Military buildup near key chokepoint signals potential confrontation, threatening shipping lanes and energy prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +5171.41
- S&P 500 Index +229.17
- Gold Spot Price +130.70
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-15 | 37.3 | 32.0 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-14 | 40.6 | 35.7 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-11 | 35.2 | 29.0 | 70.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-08 | 38.9 | 33.1 | 71.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-07 | 35.6 | 28.9 | 73.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-06 | 35.5 | 29.2 | 71.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-05 | 39.9 | 33.9 | 74.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-04 | 34.3 | 27.1 | 75.5 | Safe |
| 2026-05-01 | 34.0 | 28.1 | 67.7 | Safe |
| 2026-04-30 | 44.0 | 35.0 | 94.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-29 | 42.0 | 32.6 | 95.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-28 | 34.2 | 28.8 | 65.1 | Safe |
| 2026-04-27 | 35.9 | 30.3 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-24 | 40.4 | 35.8 | 66.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-23 | 37.5 | 31.9 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-22 | 43.9 | 39.0 | 71.7 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.