Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 19 May 2026: 64.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +2.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 67.4% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 64.9% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 57.5% (Risky).
Petrol prices surge due to Iran war context (75.0%) and Gaza aid flotilla interception (55.2%).
Markets face heightened risk from energy supply shocks and disrupted maritime routes.
Geopolitical drivers
- Petrol prices surge due to Iran war context75Rising petrol prices linked to the Iran war could directly impact energy costs and inflation, affecting consumer spending and corporate margins.
- Gaza aid flotilla intercepted, impacting maritime routes55Interception of aid flotillas near Gaza raises concerns about freedom of navigation and potential disruptions to shipping lanes, impacting trade and insurance costs.
- Iran's World Cup readiness impacted by US-Israel war36The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel, affecting Iran's national team, highlights regional instability that could spill over into energy markets or broader risk aversion.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −5010.97
- Gold Spot Price −139.20
- S&P 500 Index −9.79
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-15 | 37.3 | 32.0 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-14 | 40.6 | 35.7 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-11 | 35.2 | 29.0 | 70.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-08 | 38.9 | 33.1 | 71.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-07 | 35.6 | 28.9 | 73.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-06 | 35.5 | 29.2 | 71.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-05 | 39.9 | 33.9 | 74.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-04 | 34.3 | 27.1 | 75.5 | Safe |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.