Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 28 April 2026: 63.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −1.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +0.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 67.8% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 63.8% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 51.8% (Risky). The primary drivers include surging oil prices from the Iran war and Iran's transformation after two months of sustained conflict. These metrics suggest severe systemic fragility as energy shocks threaten to push global markets into a significant downward correction.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran war sends oil prices higher85BP profits more than double as Iran war drives oil prices up, directly impacting energy supply and prices.
- Iran's transformation after two months of war64Ongoing Iran war alters regional stability, affecting energy supply routes and great-power escalation risk.
- Hezbollah remains powerful in war with Israel60Hezbollah's sustained capability prolongs conflict, threatening energy infrastructure and shipping lanes in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +641.61
- Gold Spot Price −78.40
- S&P 500 Index +64.77
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-11 | 35.2 | 29.0 | 70.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-08 | 38.9 | 33.1 | 71.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-07 | 35.6 | 28.9 | 73.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-06 | 35.5 | 29.2 | 71.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-05 | 39.9 | 33.9 | 74.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-04 | 34.3 | 27.1 | 75.5 | Safe |
| 2026-05-01 | 34.0 | 28.1 | 67.7 | Safe |
| 2026-04-30 | 44.0 | 35.0 | 94.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-29 | 42.0 | 32.6 | 95.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-28 | 34.2 | 28.8 | 65.1 | Safe |
| 2026-04-27 | 35.9 | 30.3 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-24 | 40.4 | 35.8 | 66.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-23 | 37.5 | 31.9 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-22 | 43.9 | 39.0 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-21 | 41.4 | 35.5 | 74.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-20 | 38.5 | 31.9 | 75.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-17 | 36.5 | 30.7 | 69.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-16 | 39.5 | 33.9 | 71.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-15 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 72.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.