Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 12 May 2026: 62.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −3.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −2.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 64.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 62.0% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 55.0% (Risky).
Main drivers are Russia’s 200+ drone strikes on Ukraine and Israeli military killings in Lebanon.
Markets face heightened risk aversion as geopolitical tensions diverge from already fragile financial conditions.
Geopolitical drivers
- Russia fires 200+ drones at Ukraine as truce expires85Escalation of hostilities threatens energy infrastructure and supply routes, impacting European energy prices and risk sentiment.
- Israeli military kills six in Lebanon, issues displacement threats64Cross-border violence risks broader regional conflict, potentially disrupting Eastern Mediterranean energy shipping lanes.
- Pakistan's fuel crisis enters kitchens39Domestic energy supply disruption may affect regional energy markets and increase pressure on global LNG demand.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +703.87
- S&P 500 Index +212.09
- Gold Spot Price +145.50
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-15 | 37.3 | 32.0 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-14 | 40.6 | 35.7 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-11 | 35.2 | 29.0 | 70.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-08 | 38.9 | 33.1 | 71.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-07 | 35.6 | 28.9 | 73.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-06 | 35.5 | 29.2 | 71.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-05 | 39.9 | 33.9 | 74.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-04 | 34.3 | 27.1 | 75.5 | Safe |
| 2026-05-01 | 34.0 | 28.1 | 67.7 | Safe |
| 2026-04-30 | 44.0 | 35.0 | 94.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-29 | 42.0 | 32.6 | 95.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-28 | 34.2 | 28.8 | 65.1 | Safe |
| 2026-04-27 | 35.9 | 30.3 | 67.5 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.