Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 5 June 2026: 65.2% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +4.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +2.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 69.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.2% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 52.9% (Risky). Key drivers include a US-Iran conflict triggering commodity crises, alongside a temporary Ukraine ceasefire brokered by the IAEA. Elevated financial stress reflects deep vulnerability to commodity shocks, outstripping the moderate relief from temporary diplomatic breakthroughs.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran War Triggers Food and Commodity Crisis85The ongoing US-Iran conflict threatens global energy supply/prices and critical shipping lanes/chokepoints, driving up food commodity costs.
- IAEA Brokers Temporary Ukraine Ceasefire55A localized ceasefire for nuclear repairs temporarily eases acute fears of a catastrophic disruption to European energy supply/prices and improves short-term credit/risk sentiment.
- Zelenskyy Proposes Direct Talks with Putin51Zelenskyy's proposal for direct talks with Putin could signal a potential path to de-escalation, positively influencing global credit/risk sentiment and volatile energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −11515.89
- Gold Spot Price −64.00
- S&P 500 Index +20.68
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | 43.4 | 38.7 | 70.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.8 | 43.3 | 66.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-17 | 41.5 | 37.3 | 65.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-16 | 40.2 | 35.7 | 65.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-15 | 46.3 | 42.5 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-12 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-06-11 | 56.5 | 53.9 | 71.2 | Risky |
| 2026-06-10 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 68.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-09 | 50.3 | 47.4 | 67.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-08 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 70.5 | Risky |
| 2026-06-05 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-04 | 41.1 | 37.0 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.