Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 12 June 2026: 71.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +4.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +5.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 73.2% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 71.0% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 64.5% (Severe). Key drivers include the UK economic contraction amid the Iran war and a fatal US strike on an oil tanker. This severe systemic stress signals imminent market volatility and a defensive shift toward safe-haven assets.
Geopolitical drivers
- UK Economy Contracts Amid Iran War85The contraction of the UK economy due to the Iran war highlights how geopolitical conflict directly impacts global credit/risk sentiment and energy supply/prices.
- US Strike on Oil Tanker Kills Sailor80US military strikes on oil tankers in the Middle East directly threaten critical shipping lanes/chokepoints and elevate energy supply/prices.
- Israel Buffer Zone Targets Gas Reserves64Israel's buffer zone in southern Lebanon raises concerns over maritime gas reserve grab, threatening regional energy supply/prices and risking great-power escalation.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −256.30
- S&P 500 Index −190.01
- Gold Spot Price −104.20
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 64.3 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 63.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-24 | 51.1 | 49.0 | 62.8 | Risky |
| 2026-06-23 | 46.4 | 43.2 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-22 | 43.2 | 39.5 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-19 | 43.4 | 38.7 | 70.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.8 | 43.3 | 66.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-17 | 41.5 | 37.3 | 65.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-16 | 40.2 | 35.7 | 65.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-15 | 46.3 | 42.5 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-12 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-06-11 | 56.5 | 53.9 | 71.2 | Risky |
| 2026-06-10 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 68.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-09 | 50.3 | 47.4 | 67.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-08 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 70.5 | Risky |
| 2026-06-05 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-04 | 41.1 | 37.0 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.