Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 27 May 2026: 63.1% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.9 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 68.2% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 63.1% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 48.0% (Risky). Top geopolitical drivers include US-Iran ceasefire violations at 66.3% and the escalation of the Gaza conflict at 63.8%. This divergence suggests that internal financial vulnerabilities, rather than external geopolitical shocks, are currently driving the elevated crash risks.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran Ceasefire Violations66Repeated military exchanges between the US and Iran during the ceasefire raise the risk of great-power escalation. This directly threatens Middle Eastern energy supply/prices and critical shipping lanes/chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gaza Conflict Escalation64The targeted killing of Hamas's military wing leader in Gaza City risks prolonging regional hostilities. This maintains high risk premiums on shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Red Sea and dampens global credit/risk sentiment.
- DRC Conflict and Mineral Supply Risk36The convergence of conflict and disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo threatens mining operations in a key global producer of cobalt. This could trigger sanctions/trade disruption and supply chain bottlenecks, impacting global credit/risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −951.32
- S&P 500 Index +165.51
- Gold Spot Price −70.50
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 56.5 | 53.9 | 71.2 | Risky |
| 2026-06-10 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 68.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-09 | 50.3 | 47.4 | 67.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-08 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 70.5 | Risky |
| 2026-06-05 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-04 | 41.1 | 37.0 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-15 | 37.3 | 32.0 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-14 | 40.6 | 35.7 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.