Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 1 June 2026: 77.6% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +13.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 83.5% (Game Over), the Overall Gauge hit 77.6% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 60.1% (Severe). Risk is driven by US-Iran military clashes in the Persian Gulf and escalating Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs. These escalating conflicts threaten energy infrastructure, driving extreme market volatility and signaling imminent systemic capitulation.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran Military Clashes in Kuwait and Persian Gulf85US strikes on Iranian radar sites following attacks on American forces in Kuwait escalate direct conflict risks. This threatens critical shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Persian Gulf and risks disrupting global energy supply/prices.
- Israel Escalates Airstrikes on Beirut Suburbs68Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs mark a severe escalation in the conflict with Hezbollah. This heightens regional instability, directly impacting global credit/risk sentiment and threatening energy supply/prices.
- Israel Captures More Territory in Southern Lebanon66Israel's capture of more land in southern Lebanon signals a prolonged ground campaign. The expansion of the war zone dampens regional credit/risk sentiment and raises the premium on energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −5890.77
- S&P 500 Index +106.45
- Gold Spot Price −25.00
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 40.2 | 35.7 | 65.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-15 | 46.3 | 42.5 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-12 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-06-11 | 56.5 | 53.9 | 71.2 | Risky |
| 2026-06-10 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 68.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-09 | 50.3 | 47.4 | 67.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-08 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 70.5 | Risky |
| 2026-06-05 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-04 | 41.1 | 37.0 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.