Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 7 June 2026: 62.1% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −15.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 63.2% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 62.1% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 58.6% (Risky). Elevated risks are driven by US-Iran trade strikes on day 100 of war and drone attacks targeting St. Petersburg's economic forum. These compounding threats signal severe market vulnerability, potentially triggering a sharp downward correction across global equity markets.
Geopolitical drivers
- US and Iran Trade Strikes on Day 100 of War85Direct military exchanges between the US and Iran threaten global energy supply/prices and critical shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Drone Attacks Target St. Petersburg During Economic Forum66Drone attacks targeting St. Petersburg during Russia's premier economic forum disrupt local energy supply/prices and escalate sanctions/trade disruption risks.
- Global Responses to US-Iran War Diverge61Diverging international alignments regarding the US-Israel war on Iran increase the risk of great-power escalation and secondary sanctions/trade disruption.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −11295.18
- S&P 500 Index −196.32
- Gold Spot Price −195.20
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | 43.2 | 39.5 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-19 | 43.4 | 38.7 | 70.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.8 | 43.3 | 66.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-17 | 41.5 | 37.3 | 65.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-16 | 40.2 | 35.7 | 65.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-15 | 46.3 | 42.5 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-12 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-06-11 | 56.5 | 53.9 | 71.2 | Risky |
| 2026-06-10 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 68.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-09 | 50.3 | 47.4 | 67.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-08 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 70.5 | Risky |
| 2026-06-05 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-04 | 41.1 | 37.0 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.