Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 26 June 2026: 59.7% (Risky)
vs previous day change −3.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −4.1 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge59.7%Broad stress is building (methodology v1).
Financial stress62.3%
Geopolitical risk52.1
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite is 62.3% (Nearly Crash), Overall 59.7% (Risky), Geopolitical 52.1% (Risky).
UN Strait of Hormuz pause and IAEA Iran demands are top drivers.
Geopolitical risks are elevated, impacting overall market sentiment.
Geopolitical drivers
- UN Pauses Strait of Hormuz Evacuation After Ship Attack85An attack on a cargo ship and paused evacuations in the Strait of Hormuz directly threaten oil shipping lanes, potentially impacting global energy supply and prices.
- IAEA Demands Verification of Iran Nuclear Ambitions66IAEA demands for verification of Iran's nuclear program could lead to increased geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions, affecting oil markets and global risk sentiment.
- Ukrainian Intelligence Official Jailed for Spying for Russia42This event highlights ongoing espionage in the Ukraine conflict, potentially revealing intelligence leaks that could influence military strategies and market sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −3571.31
- Gold Spot Price −156.30
- S&P 500 Index −143.09
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-03 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 61.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-02 | 46.5 | 43.8 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-01 | 46.1 | 43.3 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-30 | 49.4 | 47.5 | 59.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-29 | 51.9 | 50.2 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-26 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 64.3 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 63.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-24 | 51.1 | 49.0 | 62.8 | Risky |
| 2026-06-23 | 46.4 | 43.2 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-22 | 43.2 | 39.5 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-19 | 43.4 | 38.7 | 70.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.8 | 43.3 | 66.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-17 | 41.5 | 37.3 | 65.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-16 | 40.2 | 35.7 | 65.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-15 | 46.3 | 42.5 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-12 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-06-11 | 56.5 | 53.9 | 71.2 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.