Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 14 June 2026: 68.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +5.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 71.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 68.0% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 58.2% (Risky). Key geopolitical drivers include Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire violations at 63.8% and US-Iran deal negotiations at 55.2%. This divergence suggests that underlying systemic vulnerabilities, rather than geopolitical friction alone, are driving the market toward critical thresholds.
Geopolitical drivers
- Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Violations64Accusations of ceasefire violations and displacement orders in Lebanon threaten to reignite regional conflict, impacting energy supply/prices and global risk sentiment.
- US-Iran Deal Negotiations55Potential signing of a US-Iran deal could ease sanctions and increase global energy supply, directly impacting crude oil prices.
- UK Seizure of Russian Shadow Tanker60The boarding of a suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker in the English Channel escalates tensions, directly impacting shipping lanes/chokepoints and sanctions/trade disruption.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +3693.07
- Gold Spot Price −98.30
- S&P 500 Index +47.72
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 51.9 | 50.2 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-26 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 64.3 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 63.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-24 | 51.1 | 49.0 | 62.8 | Risky |
| 2026-06-23 | 46.4 | 43.2 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-22 | 43.2 | 39.5 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-19 | 43.4 | 38.7 | 70.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.8 | 43.3 | 66.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-17 | 41.5 | 37.3 | 65.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-16 | 40.2 | 35.7 | 65.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-15 | 46.3 | 42.5 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-12 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-06-11 | 56.5 | 53.9 | 71.2 | Risky |
| 2026-06-10 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 68.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-09 | 50.3 | 47.4 | 67.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-08 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 70.5 | Risky |
| 2026-06-05 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-04 | 41.1 | 37.0 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.