Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 21 June 2026: 63.1% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −4.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 65.9% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 63.1% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 54.6% (Risky). These risks are driven by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities and high-stakes US-Iran talks in Switzerland. This divergence indicates that systemic financial fragility is outpacing immediate geopolitical threats, elevating overall market downside risks.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran High-Stakes Talks in Switzerland55High-stakes negotiations between US and Iranian delegations in Switzerland could ease regional tensions, directly impacting global energy supply/prices and shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Middle East.
- Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Facilities64Drone strikes targeting oil facilities in Crimea and Krasnodar threaten Russian crude processing capacity, directly impacting global energy supply/prices and intensifying sanctions/trade disruption.
- Israel-Lebanon Military Escalation Risks38Ongoing Israeli military threats in Lebanon risk a wider regional war, impacting credit/risk sentiment and threatening vital Mediterranean shipping lanes/chokepoints.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −185.19
- S&P 500 Index +106.28
- Gold Spot Price −42.10
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-03 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 61.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-02 | 46.5 | 43.8 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-01 | 46.1 | 43.3 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-30 | 49.4 | 47.5 | 59.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-29 | 51.9 | 50.2 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-26 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 64.3 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 63.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-24 | 51.1 | 49.0 | 62.8 | Risky |
| 2026-06-23 | 46.4 | 43.2 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-22 | 43.2 | 39.5 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-19 | 43.4 | 38.7 | 70.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.8 | 43.3 | 66.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-17 | 41.5 | 37.3 | 65.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-16 | 40.2 | 35.7 | 65.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-15 | 46.3 | 42.5 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-12 | 51.7 | 47.9 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-06-11 | 56.5 | 53.9 | 71.2 | Risky |
| 2026-06-10 | 53.0 | 50.3 | 68.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-09 | 50.3 | 47.4 | 67.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-08 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 70.5 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.