Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 6 July 2026: 55.5% (Risky)
vs previous day change −1.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −3.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge55.5%Broad stress is building. Check position sizing and hedges.
Financial stress57.0%
Geopolitical risk51.0
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 57.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 55.5% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 51.0% (Risky). Key drivers include Ukraine's critical interceptor missile shortage and heightened regional instability surrounding Khamenei's funeral procession in Tehran. Consequently, markets face heightened volatility, forcing a shift toward defensive assets despite resilient underlying economic indicators.
Geopolitical drivers
- Ukraine warns of interceptor missile shortage as 19 killed in Kyiv region64Shortage of interceptors weakens Ukraine's air defense, increasing risk of infrastructure damage and energy supply disruption in Europe.
- Huge crowds fill Tehran streets for Khamenei's funeral procession60Leadership transition in Iran creates uncertainty over nuclear policy and oil supply, impacting energy prices and geopolitical risk premium.
- El-Obeid under siege by RSF: Could this be Sudan’s next el-Fasher?39Siege threatens key transport hub, potentially disrupting regional trade routes and commodity flows in East Africa.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +2094.03
- S&P 500 Index +125.75
- Gold Spot Price +123.80
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-19 | 64.1 | 66.1 | 58.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-18 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 56.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-17 | 63.7 | 64.6 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-16 | 63.5 | 65.2 | 58.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-15 | 64.5 | 66.0 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-14 | 63.7 | 64.5 | 61.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-13 | 63.3 | 64.5 | 59.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-12 | 60.1 | 58.9 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-11 | 59.1 | 58.9 | 59.7 | Risky |
| 2026-07-10 | 60.4 | 60.9 | 58.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-09 | 62.0 | 63.0 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-08 | 61.0 | 62.9 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-07 | 55.8 | 57.4 | 50.8 | Risky |
| 2026-07-06 | 55.5 | 57.0 | 51.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-05 | 56.6 | 57.4 | 54.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-04 | 56.8 | 57.3 | 55.3 | Risky |
| 2026-07-03 | 56.0 | 57.1 | 52.8 | Risky |
| 2026-07-02 | 57.7 | 59.6 | 52.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-01 | 57.0 | 58.7 | 52.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-30 | 59.8 | 63.0 | 50.1 | Risky |
| 2026-06-29 | 59.2 | 62.1 | 50.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-28 | 61.3 | 63.8 | 53.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-27 | 61.0 | 62.5 | 56.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-26 | 59.7 | 62.3 | 52.1 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 63.0 | 67.5 | 49.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-24 | 60.9 | 64.8 | 49.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-23 | 58.1 | 60.4 | 51.2 | Risky |
| 2026-06-22 | 61.3 | 64.9 | 50.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-21 | 63.1 | 65.9 | 54.6 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.