Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 3 July 2026: 56.0% (Risky)
vs previous day change −1.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −3.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 57.1% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 56.0% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 52.8% (Risky). Elevated risks are driven by Russian oil flows via India's Nayara and Ukraine's deployment of asymmetrical tactics. These risky thresholds imply heightened energy market volatility, forcing strategists to hedge against persistent supply chain disruptions.
Geopolitical drivers
- Israel Approves New West Bank Settlements64Israel's approval of 13 new settlements in the West Bank escalates Middle East tensions, threatening regional stability and raising risk premiums across shipping lanes/chokepoints.
- Ukraine Deploys Asymmetrical Tactics61Ukraine's shift to asymmetrical tactics alters conflict dynamics, raising the risk of great-power escalation and retaliatory strikes on infrastructure, impacting global energy supply/prices.
- Russian Oil Flows via India's Nayara58Indian firm Nayara's reported imports of Russian oil highlight ongoing sanctions/trade disruption evasion, directly impacting global energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +2205.33
- S&P 500 Index +125.75
- Gold Spot Price +118.80
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-03 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 61.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-02 | 46.5 | 43.8 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-01 | 46.1 | 43.3 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-30 | 49.4 | 47.5 | 59.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-29 | 51.9 | 50.2 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-26 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 64.3 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 63.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-24 | 51.1 | 49.0 | 62.8 | Risky |
| 2026-06-23 | 46.4 | 43.2 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-22 | 43.2 | 39.5 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-19 | 43.4 | 38.7 | 70.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-18 | 46.8 | 43.3 | 66.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.