Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 13 January 2026: 55.9% (Risky)
vs previous day change +0.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 57.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 55.9% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 52.5% (Risky). Key drivers include the briefing of Trump on military options for Iran and persistent global geopolitical tension. Elevated geopolitical risk suggests continued market caution and potential volatility.
Composite: 55.9% (Risky)
Regime: risk off
Geopolitical: 52.5% (Risky)
Market insight: The Financial Composite Gauge registered 57.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 55.9% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 52.5% (Risky). Key drivers include the briefing of Trump on military options for Iran and persistent global geopolitical tension. Elevated geopolitical risk suggests continued market caution and potential volatility.
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-16 | 34.4 | 29.7 | 60.5 | Safe |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.4 | 35.1 | 96.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.2 | 29.8 | 92.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-06 | 41.9 | 33.5 | 89.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-05 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 91.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-02 | 43.3 | 35.9 | 85.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-01 | 43.2 | 37.9 | 73.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-31 | 42.1 | 35.8 | 78.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-30 | 42.0 | 35.1 | 81.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-29 | 36.8 | 30.7 | 71.7 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.