Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 16 May 2026: 65.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +2.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 68.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.3% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 55.5% (Risky). Key drivers include US-Taiwan independence warnings and Iran-US conflict signals, which represent the primary sources of geopolitical instability. These elevated readings indicate high systemic fragility, suggesting that geopolitical developments could act as a catalyst for a market correction.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran-US Conflict and Negotiation Signals82While Trump signals potential talks, ongoing military friction and legal charges against proxies maintain high pressure on energy supply and prices.
- US-Taiwan Independence Warning64Trump's warning to Taiwan regarding independence increases the risk of great-power escalation and potential trade disruption in the semiconductor supply chain.
- Putin-China Diplomatic Visit60Putin's visit to China following Trump's trip signals deepening bilateral ties, potentially leading to further sanctions and trade disruption between geopolitical blocs.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −2340.91
- Gold Spot Price −164.60
- WTI Crude Oil +10.00
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-15 | 37.3 | 32.0 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-14 | 40.6 | 35.7 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-11 | 35.2 | 29.0 | 70.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-08 | 38.9 | 33.1 | 71.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-07 | 35.6 | 28.9 | 73.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-06 | 35.5 | 29.2 | 71.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-05 | 39.9 | 33.9 | 74.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-04 | 34.3 | 27.1 | 75.5 | Safe |
| 2026-05-01 | 34.0 | 28.1 | 67.7 | Safe |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.