Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 17 May 2026: 65.2% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change ±0.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 67.1% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.2% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 59.7% (Risky). Primary drivers include the Iran Hormuz Shipping Toll Proposal (88.0%) and the Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Moscow Region (64.6%). These readings indicate heightened systemic fragility, implying that geopolitical instability may trigger a significant market correction.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran Hormuz Shipping Toll Proposal88Iran's plan to impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens global energy supply/prices and increases costs for critical shipping lanes.
- Israeli Bombing of Lebanon Escalation70Continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon signal a widening regional conflict that threatens Middle East regional stability and energy supply/prices.
- Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Moscow Region65Large-scale drone attacks on the Moscow region increase the risk of Russian infrastructure damage and disruption to energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −2245.17
- Gold Spot Price −158.50
- S&P 500 Index +9.57
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-15 | 37.3 | 32.0 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-14 | 40.6 | 35.7 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-11 | 35.2 | 29.0 | 70.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-08 | 38.9 | 33.1 | 71.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-07 | 35.6 | 28.9 | 73.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-06 | 35.5 | 29.2 | 71.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-05 | 39.9 | 33.9 | 74.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-04 | 34.3 | 27.1 | 75.5 | Safe |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.