Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 13 October 2026: 47.4% (Cautious)
vs previous day change +0.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier: n/a
Game Over Gauge47.4%Around the long-run middle. Some indicators are elevated; worth watching, rarely worth acting on alone.
Financial stress44.3%
Geopolitical risk64.8
Market regimeneutral
Summary
The Overall Gauge reads 47.4 (Cautious); financial stress is 44.3 (Cautious) and the geopolitical layer is 64.8 (Severe). Main financial contributors: 10y real yield, 1-month change (stress percentile 96); High-yield spread, 1-month change (stress percentile 95); High-yield credit spread (stress percentile 62). Geopolitical drivers: Black Sea Drone Strike Sinks Ship off Bulgarian Coast (54.4); Ongoing Middle East Hostilities Drag on Regional Growth (46.8).
Geopolitical drivers
- Black Sea Drone Strike Sinks Ship off Bulgarian Coast54Drone attacks sinking commercial vessels near NATO member Bulgaria threaten Black Sea shipping lanes and drive up maritime insurance premiums and regional risk sentiment.
- Ongoing Middle East Hostilities Drag on Regional Growth47Protracted regional warfare prompting IMF downgrades across Middle East economies maintains pressure on energy prices and regional sovereign credit spreads.
- Escalation in Yemen Threatens Maritime Corridors42Deepening conflict dynamics in Yemen threaten maritime choke points, elevating supply-chain freight rates and global shipping disruption risks.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 47.4 | 44.3 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-11 | 46.8 | 43.7 | 64.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-10 | 46.4 | 43.7 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.