Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 14 October 2026: 46.9% (Cautious)
vs previous day change −0.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier: n/a
Game Over Gauge46.9%Around the long-run middle. Some indicators are elevated; worth watching, rarely worth acting on alone.
Financial stress44.3%
Geopolitical risk61.9
Market regimeneutral
Summary
The Overall Gauge reads 46.9 (Cautious); financial stress is 44.3 (Cautious) and the geopolitical layer is 61.9 (Severe). Main financial contributors: High-yield spread, 1-month change (stress percentile 95); 10y real yield, 1-month change (stress percentile 94); MOVE Treasury volatility (stress percentile 73). Geopolitical drivers: Intensified Infrastructure Attacks and Deep Ukrainian Counterstrikes (57.6); Southern Lebanon Border Buffer and Iranian Sanctions Scrutiny (44.1).
Geopolitical drivers
- Intensified Infrastructure Attacks and Deep Ukrainian Counterstrikes58Massive strikes disabling Ukraine's power grid alongside Ukrainian drone penetration into Russian territory raise European energy price volatility and heighten great-power escalation risks.
- Southern Lebanon Border Buffer and Iranian Sanctions Scrutiny44Military operations reshaping southern Lebanon and scrutiny over Iranian illicit capital flows maintain persistent geopolitical risk premiums across regional energy prices and credit sentiment.
- US Resource Ambitions in Greenland55Proposals to open Greenland to oil, gas, and mineral exploration introduce long-term shifts in energy prices and critical mineral supply chains amid geopolitical friction.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | 46.9 | 44.3 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-13 | 47.4 | 44.3 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-11 | 46.8 | 43.7 | 64.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-10 | 46.4 | 43.7 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.