Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 15 October 2026: 53.1% (Risky)
vs previous day change +6.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier: n/a
Game Over Gauge53.1%Stress is broadly above its 10-year norm. Check position sizing and hedges.
Financial stress51.2%
Geopolitical risk63.8
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Overall Gauge reads 53.1 (Risky); financial stress is 51.2 (Risky) and the geopolitical layer is 63.8 (Severe). Main financial contributors: S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high (stress percentile 45); High-yield credit spread (stress percentile 65); High-yield spread, 1-month change (stress percentile 95). Geopolitical drivers: Global Economic Fallout from Iran War (51.9); Disruptions and Hazards in Strait of Hormuz (48.3).
Geopolitical drivers
- Global Economic Fallout from Iran War52G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting to address fallout threatens credit/risk sentiment and introduces volatility to energy prices.
- Disruptions and Hazards in Strait of Hormuz48Debris and containers floating in the critical chokepoint threaten commercial shipping lanes, raising maritime insurance premiums and freight rates.
- Ukraine Drone Supply Friction and Russian Pacific Drills49Disruptions in battlefield drone performance and Russian nuclear submarine exercises heighten great-power escalation risks and defense supply uncertainty.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 53.1 | 51.2 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-10-14 | 46.9 | 44.3 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-13 | 47.4 | 44.3 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-11 | 46.8 | 43.7 | 64.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-10 | 46.4 | 43.7 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.