Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 12 December 2025: 47.7% (Risky)
vs previous day change −1.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +1.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge47.7%Broad stress is building (methodology v1).
Financial stress29.7%
Geopolitical risk71.9
Overall risk is 47.7% (Risky). The financial composite is 29.7% (Cautious), while the geopolitical composite is 71.9% (Severe).
Top geopolitical stressors
Stalled Gaza Peace Efforts and Extreme Humanitarian Deterioration (20.2% weight)
US Sanctions and Maritime Seizure Targeting Venezuelan Oil Trade (19.1% weight)
Risk of Regional Conflagration due to DR Congo Violence (17.0% weight)
Key market indicators
| Indicator | Latest | 5D Δ | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Treasury Yield (Nominal, %) | 4.13 | -0.01 | 36.22 | 20.00% |
| US 10Y TIPS Real Yield (%, CPI-adjusted) | 1.88 | 0.00 | 62.67 | 25.00% |
| US High Yield OAS (%, BofA ICE) | 2.91 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 30.00% |
| VIX (Implied Volatility) | 15.77 | 0.36 | 11.42 | 15.00% |
| 10Y Term Premium | 0.53 | 0.08 | 51.09 | 10.00% |
| Geopolitical Composite | 71.88 | n/a | 71.88 | 5.00% |
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 34.4 | 27.5 | 73.0 | Safe |
| 2025-12-25 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 78.2 | Safe |
| 2025-12-24 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 87.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-23 | 41.2 | 32.3 | 91.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.5 | 36.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-17 | 47.9 | 43.3 | 73.6 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.1 | 42.3 | 54.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-15 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 55.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-12 | 35.4 | 31.9 | 55.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-11 | 39.6 | 36.7 | 56.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-10 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-09 | 45.3 | 41.7 | 65.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-08 | 39.9 | 35.5 | 65.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-05 | 42.6 | 37.7 | 70.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-04 | 47.1 | 41.4 | 79.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-03 | 50.4 | 45.0 | 81.4 | Risky |
| 2025-12-02 | 54.5 | 49.2 | 84.4 | Risky |
| 2025-12-01 | 52.0 | 46.9 | 81.4 | Risky |
| 2025-11-28 | 54.8 | 53.0 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2025-11-27 | 50.4 | 50.5 | 50.1 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.