Daily risk briefing · 14 December 2025

Market crash risk on 14 December 2025: 80.7% (Game Over)

vs previous day change +32.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +33.2 pts vs 1 week earlier

This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.

Game Over Gauge80.7%Extreme readings across markets and geopolitics (methodology v1).

Financial stress52.2%

Geopolitical risk66.4

Market regimeMixed

Summary

Severe stress dominates; capital preservation critical. Recent adverse moves add 12.0 penalty points. Market regime: Mixed. Geopolitical tensions add 66% risk premium. Trend penalty: 12.0. Key moves: Gold: 2.7% ↑ (penalty: 12.0)

Overall risk is 80.7% (Severe). The financial composite is 52.2% (Elevated), while the geopolitical composite is 66.4% (Severe).

Market Insight: Severe stress dominates; capital preservation critical. Recent adverse moves add 12.0 penalty points. Market regime: Mixed. Geopolitical tensions add 66% risk premium. Trend penalty: 12.0. Key moves: Gold: 2.7% ↑ (penalty: 12.0)

Top geopolitical stressors

Rising Threat of Targeted Extremist Violence in Western Nations (23.7% weight) French Opposition Delays EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Vote (21.1% weight) Persistent Threat to US/UN Personnel in Conflict Zones (Syria/Sudan) (19.7% weight) US Sanctions Lifting on Belarus and Diplomatic Concessions (18.4% weight) Anticipation of Verdict in High-Profile Hong Kong National Security Case (17.1% weight)

Key market indicators

Indicator	Latest	5D Δ	Score	Weight
US 10Y Treasury Yield	4.14	0.03	61.10	12.00%
US 10Y Real Yield	1.89	0.04	69.50	12.00%
High Yield Credit Spread	2.88	0.00	7.70	14.00%
VIX Volatility Index	14.85	-0.93	18.30	10.00%
10Y Term Premium	0.53	0.08	51.00	7.00%
Bitcoin/USD	88279.43	-965.34	100.00	10.00%
Gold Spot Price	4328.30	115.40	100.00	10.00%
WTI Crude Oil	57.44	-2.64	0.00	8.00%
Dollar Index	98.39	-0.60	0.00	7.00%
S&P 500 Index	6827.41	-42.99	100.00	10.00%

Market Regime Analysis

Primary regime: mixed (confidence: 0.29)

Risk Off: 0.29 Inflation: 0.26 Growth: 0.11

This page is generated daily. You can embed the live gauge or use the JSON feed from the dashboard or gauge.json.

The gauge in the 30 days around 14 Dec 2025 (methodology v2)

Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.

Show data table

Date	Total	Financial	Geopolitical	Band
2025-12-29	36.8	30.7	71.7	Cautious
2025-12-26	34.4	27.5	73.0	Safe
2025-12-25	35.0	27.4	78.2	Safe
2025-12-24	36.5	27.6	87.2	Cautious
2025-12-23	41.2	32.3	91.9	Cautious
2025-12-22	44.5	36.7	88.7	Cautious
2025-12-19	50.8	44.4	86.8	Risky
2025-12-18	52.9	47.6	82.8	Risky
2025-12-17	47.9	43.3	73.6	Cautious
2025-12-16	44.1	42.3	54.5	Cautious
2025-12-15	42.8	40.6	55.4	Cautious
2025-12-12	35.4	31.9	55.3	Cautious
2025-12-11	39.6	36.7	56.1	Cautious
2025-12-10	45.8	43.1	61.2	Cautious
2025-12-09	45.3	41.7	65.7	Cautious
2025-12-08	39.9	35.5	65.0	Cautious
2025-12-05	42.6	37.7	70.5	Cautious
2025-12-04	47.1	41.4	79.1	Cautious
2025-12-03	50.4	45.0	81.4	Risky
2025-12-02	54.5	49.2	84.4	Risky
2025-12-01	52.0	46.9	81.4	Risky

Keep exploring: today's crash-risk reading · today's market signals · geopolitical risk index · how the gauge works

Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.