Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 20 December 2025: 56.7% (Risky)
vs previous day change −0.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +8.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge was 52.9% (Risky), the Overall Gauge was 56.7% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer reached 68.0% (Severe). Geopolitical risk is driven by the deadly Taipei metro attack and a major US strike against ISIS in Syria. Elevated severity suggests continued market caution and potential volatility, especially in global defensive assets.
Composite: 56.7% (Risky)
Regime: mixed
Geopolitical: 68.0% (Severe)
Market insight: The Financial Composite Gauge was 52.9% (Risky), the Overall Gauge was 56.7% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer reached 68.0% (Severe). Geopolitical risk is driven by the deadly Taipei metro attack and a major US strike against ISIS in Syria. Elevated severity suggests continued market caution and potential volatility, especially in global defensive assets.
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 43.3 | 35.9 | 85.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-01 | 43.2 | 37.9 | 73.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-31 | 42.1 | 35.8 | 78.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-30 | 42.0 | 35.1 | 81.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-29 | 36.8 | 30.7 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-26 | 34.4 | 27.5 | 73.0 | Safe |
| 2025-12-25 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 78.2 | Safe |
| 2025-12-24 | 36.5 | 27.6 | 87.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-23 | 41.2 | 32.3 | 91.9 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.5 | 36.7 | 88.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-19 | 50.8 | 44.4 | 86.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-18 | 52.9 | 47.6 | 82.8 | Risky |
| 2025-12-17 | 47.9 | 43.3 | 73.6 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.1 | 42.3 | 54.5 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-15 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 55.4 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-12 | 35.4 | 31.9 | 55.3 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-11 | 39.6 | 36.7 | 56.1 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-10 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.2 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-09 | 45.3 | 41.7 | 65.7 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-08 | 39.9 | 35.5 | 65.0 | Cautious |
| 2025-12-05 | 42.6 | 37.7 | 70.5 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.