Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 22 February 2026: 56.0% (Risky)
vs previous day change +1.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +3.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 56.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 56.0% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 56.1% (Risky).
Trump's proposed global tariff and Iran's nuclear defiance are top geopolitical drivers.
These risks suggest potential market volatility and trade policy uncertainty.
Geopolitical drivers
- Trump proposes 15% global tariff92The proposed increase to a 15% global tariff acts as a primary trade disruption channel, threatening global supply chains and inflationary stability.
- Iran defies US pressure in nuclear talks72Iran's refusal to yield to US pressure increases the likelihood of tightened sanctions, directly impacting global energy supply/prices.
- Russia weaponizes winter against Ukraine75Targeted attacks on energy infrastructure during winter months create immediate volatility in European energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1754.38
- S&P 500 Index +73.34
- Gold Spot Price +58.90
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | 65.6 | 63.7 | 76.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-06 | 61.0 | 58.5 | 75.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-05 | 57.7 | 54.5 | 75.8 | Risky |
| 2026-03-04 | 62.5 | 60.3 | 75.0 | Risky |
| 2026-03-03 | 58.1 | 56.1 | 69.2 | Risky |
| 2026-03-02 | 56.4 | 54.5 | 66.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-27 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 57.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-26 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 55.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-25 | 50.8 | 50.4 | 52.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-24 | 53.2 | 53.1 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-23 | 47.5 | 46.6 | 52.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-20 | 48.0 | 49.1 | 41.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-19 | 46.1 | 46.9 | 41.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-18 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 44.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-17 | 49.5 | 49.4 | 50.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-16 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 50.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-13 | 50.0 | 48.5 | 58.9 | Risky |
| 2026-02-12 | 42.1 | 39.2 | 58.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-11 | 42.6 | 39.2 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-10 | 39.6 | 36.0 | 60.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-09 | 46.6 | 44.2 | 60.5 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.