Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 11 February 2026: 55.7% (Risky)
vs previous day change +0.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 56.0% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 55.7% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 54.7% (Risky). Primary drivers include the critical stage of Iran nuclear talks and the Trump-Netanyahu diplomatic meeting. This convergence of risky indicators suggests heightened market volatility and a shift toward defensive positioning among investors.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran Nuclear Talks Critical Stage75Negotiations reaching a critical juncture increase the probability of military friction or renewed sanctions, directly impacting global energy supply/prices.
- Trump-Netanyahu Diplomatic Meeting70High-level coordination on regional security suggests a shift in US posture, potentially accelerating great-power escalation in the Middle East.
- Russian Strikes on Kharkiv67Renewed aerial offensives against Ukrainian urban centers threaten regional stability and maintain upward pressure on European energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −8839.84
- Gold Spot Price +172.60
- S&P 500 Index +24.00
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 47.1 | 45.6 | 55.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-25 | 50.8 | 50.4 | 52.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-24 | 53.2 | 53.1 | 53.7 | Risky |
| 2026-02-23 | 47.5 | 46.6 | 52.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-20 | 48.0 | 49.1 | 41.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-19 | 46.1 | 46.9 | 41.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-18 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 44.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-17 | 49.5 | 49.4 | 50.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-16 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 50.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-13 | 50.0 | 48.5 | 58.9 | Risky |
| 2026-02-12 | 42.1 | 39.2 | 58.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-11 | 42.6 | 39.2 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-10 | 39.6 | 36.0 | 60.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-09 | 46.6 | 44.2 | 60.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-06 | 52.0 | 50.6 | 59.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-05 | 45.8 | 42.5 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-04 | 42.2 | 39.0 | 60.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-03 | 35.7 | 31.5 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-02 | 40.9 | 37.3 | 61.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.