Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 25 March 2026: 69.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 71.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 69.9% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 65.7% (Severe).
US-Israel War on Iran and BlackRock's oil recession warning are top drivers.
These factors suggest significant market risk and potential downturn.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Israel War on Iran Day 2692Active direct conflict between major regional powers threatens global energy supply and critical shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- BlackRock Recession Warning at $150 Oil72Institutional warnings of a global recession if oil prices hit $150/bbl are driving a sharp decline in global credit and risk sentiment.
- US-Iran Peace Negotiation Volatility55Conflicting reports on peace talks between Trump and Iran are causing high volatility in energy prices and shifting risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −2675.45
- Gold Spot Price −360.90
- S&P 500 Index −159.72
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-31 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 74.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-30 | 75.6 | 75.7 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-27 | 72.0 | 71.4 | 75.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-26 | 69.7 | 68.8 | 74.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-25 | 71.0 | 70.2 | 75.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-24 | 71.5 | 70.3 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-23 | 73.6 | 72.8 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-20 | 70.5 | 69.1 | 78.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-19 | 68.9 | 67.6 | 76.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-18 | 66.1 | 64.7 | 74.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-17 | 68.1 | 66.6 | 76.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-16 | 70.3 | 69.2 | 77.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-13 | 70.0 | 68.5 | 78.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-12 | 65.6 | 63.5 | 77.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-11 | 63.0 | 60.8 | 75.5 | Risky |
| 2026-03-10 | 64.6 | 63.0 | 73.8 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.