Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 26 March 2026: 75.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +5.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +10.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge75.4%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress79.1%
Geopolitical risk64.3
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial gauges signal nearly crash conditions, with geopolitics severe.
Iran war expansion and energy inflation are top geopolitical drivers.
These risks suggest significant market downside and potential divergence.
Geopolitical drivers
- Expansion of Iran war to Gulf hubs92Direct strikes on Abu Dhabi and Shiraz represent a significant escalation in the regional conflict. Market transmission: energy supply/shipping lanes.
- Global energy and inflation warnings75Major European economies warn of an economic catastrophe and persistent inflation due to the ongoing war. Market transmission: energy prices/global growth.
- US-China diplomatic postponement72The postponement of the Trump-Xi meeting due to the Iran war delays resolution of ongoing trade tensions. Market transmission: great-power escalation/trade disruption.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1751.61
- Gold Spot Price −181.70
- S&P 500 Index −32.80
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-31 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 74.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-30 | 75.6 | 75.7 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-27 | 72.0 | 71.4 | 75.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-26 | 69.7 | 68.8 | 74.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-25 | 71.0 | 70.2 | 75.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-24 | 71.5 | 70.3 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-23 | 73.6 | 72.8 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-20 | 70.5 | 69.1 | 78.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-19 | 68.9 | 67.6 | 76.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-18 | 66.1 | 64.7 | 74.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-17 | 68.1 | 66.6 | 76.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-16 | 70.3 | 69.2 | 77.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-13 | 70.0 | 68.5 | 78.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-12 | 65.6 | 63.5 | 77.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-11 | 63.0 | 60.8 | 75.5 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.