Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 3 April 2026: 72.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +5.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 75.9% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 72.3% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 61.7% (Severe). Intensifying US-Israeli attacks on Iran and strikes against Kuwaiti refinery and desalination infrastructure serve as the primary geopolitical drivers. These severe readings indicate heightened systemic vulnerability, suggesting that geopolitical escalation is the primary catalyst for potential market contraction.
Geopolitical drivers
- Intensification of US-Israeli Attacks on Iran92Ongoing military operations and warnings of future infrastructure assaults heighten great-power escalation risks and disrupt Middle Eastern energy supply.
- Kuwait Refinery and Desalination Attacks88Missile and drone strikes on Kuwaiti oil refineries and desalination plants directly threaten global energy supply and increase crude price volatility.
- Iran Retaliation Vows for Infrastructure Strikes72Tehran's promise of retaliation for strikes on critical infrastructure increases the probability of asymmetric attacks on shipping lanes and regional oil facilities.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1973.32
- Gold Spot Price +276.00
- S&P 500 Index +105.53
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | 36.5 | 30.7 | 69.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-16 | 39.5 | 33.9 | 71.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-15 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 72.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-31 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 74.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-30 | 75.6 | 75.7 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-27 | 72.0 | 71.4 | 75.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-26 | 69.7 | 68.8 | 74.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-25 | 71.0 | 70.2 | 75.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-24 | 71.5 | 70.3 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-23 | 73.6 | 72.8 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-20 | 70.5 | 69.1 | 78.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-19 | 68.9 | 67.6 | 76.1 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.